Germany, clearly.
TestedGermany win about 69 times in 100. The other 31: a draw (21) or a Serbia win (10).
Forecast by Vesta, published Thursday 1 October 2026, 17:41 CEST on our social channels, before kickoff.
Final score 2–0: Vesta gave this result 69%. The favourite came through.
3 or more goals51%
Both teams score43%
Expected goals2.0 v 0.7
Most likely score2-014% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals93%
2 or more goals76%
3 or more goals51%
4 or more goals29%
5 or more goals14%
Exactly
0 goals7%
1 goal17%
2 goals25%
3 goals22%
4 goals15%
5 goals8%
6 or more goals6%
Goals by team
TestedGermany: 1 or more87%
Germany: 2 or more60%
Germany: 3 or more34%
Serbia: 1 or more49%
Serbia: 2 or more14%
Serbia: 3 or more3%
Both teams score43%
At least one team does not score57%
Winning margin
TestedGermany by 3 or more23%
Germany by 221%
Germany by 125%
Draw21%
Serbia by 18%
Serbia by 22%
Serbia by 3 or more1%
Result combinations
TestedGermany win or draw90%
Either team wins (no draw)79%
Serbia win or draw31%
Clean sheets
TestedGermany keep a clean sheet51%
Serbia keep a clean sheet13%
Germany win without conceding44%
Serbia win without conceding6%
No goals at all7%
The first goal
Model estimateGermany score first70%
Serbia score first23%
No goals7%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1531%
Minutes 16-3022%
Minutes 31-45+17%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+5%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Germany goals down, Serbia goals across. The outlined one happened.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | · |
| 1 | 13.2 | 9.7 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | · |
| 2 | 13.8 | 9.1 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | · |
| 3 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | · |
| 4 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | · | · |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half70%
A goal in the second half78%
Germany ahead at half-time50%
Level at half-time39%
Serbia ahead at half-time11%
Germany win the second half55%
Second half level33%
Serbia win the second half12%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half44%
Same goals in both halves26%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateGermany ahead at half-time, Germany win46%
Level at half-time, Germany win21%
Serbia ahead at half-time, Germany win2%
Germany ahead at half-time, draw4%
Level at half-time, draw14%
Serbia ahead at half-time, draw3%
Germany ahead at half-time, Serbia win1%
Level at half-time, Serbia win5%
Serbia ahead at half-time, Serbia win5%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
GermanySerbia
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works