- National teams
- UEFA Nations League
Greece v Netherlands
27%Greece
29%Draw
44%Netherlands
Netherlands, just.
TestedNetherlands win about 44 times in 100. The other 56: a draw (29) or a Greece win (27).
Forecast by Vesta, published Thursday 1 October 2026, 17:41 CEST on our social channels, before kickoff.
Final score 2–2: Vesta gave this result 29%. Not the favourite: a probability says how often, not which one.
3 or more goals42%
Both teams score48%
Expected goals1.0 v 1.4
Most likely score1-114% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals90%
2 or more goals69%
3 or more goals42%
4 or more goals21%
5 or more goals9%
Exactly
0 goals10%
1 goal21%
2 goals27%
3 goals20%
4 goals12%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals3%
Goals by team
TestedGreece: 1 or more63%
Greece: 2 or more26%
Greece: 3 or more8%
Netherlands: 1 or more74%
Netherlands: 2 or more39%
Netherlands: 3 or more16%
Both teams score48%
At least one team does not score52%
Winning margin
TestedGreece by 3 or more3%
Greece by 27%
Greece by 117%
Draw29%
Netherlands by 123%
Netherlands by 213%
Netherlands by 3 or more8%
Result combinations
TestedGreece win or draw56%
Either team wins (no draw)71%
Netherlands win or draw73%
Clean sheets
TestedGreece keep a clean sheet26%
Netherlands keep a clean sheet37%
Greece win without conceding15%
Netherlands win without conceding27%
No goals at all10%
The first goal
Model estimateGreece score first38%
Netherlands score first52%
No goals10%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1529%
Minutes 16-3020%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-758%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Greece goals down, Netherlands goals across. The outlined one happened.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 12.3 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 13.7 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | · | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half65%
A goal in the second half72%
Greece ahead at half-time22%
Level at half-time46%
Netherlands ahead at half-time32%
Greece win the second half24%
Second half level40%
Netherlands win the second half36%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half41%
Same goals in both halves29%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateGreece ahead at half-time, Greece win15%
Level at half-time, Greece win10%
Netherlands ahead at half-time, Greece win1%
Greece ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw19%
Netherlands ahead at half-time, draw5%
Greece ahead at half-time, Netherlands win2%
Level at half-time, Netherlands win16%
Netherlands ahead at half-time, Netherlands win26%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
GreeceNetherlands
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works