Malta, clearly.
TestedMalta win about 74 times in 100. The other 26: a draw (18) or a Gibraltar win (8).
Forecast by Vesta, published Thursday 1 October 2026, 17:41 CEST on our social channels, before kickoff.
Final score 1–1: Vesta gave this result 18%. Not the favourite: a probability says how often, not which one.
3 or more goals54%
Both teams score41%
Expected goals2.2 v 0.6
Most likely score2-014% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals94%
2 or more goals78%
3 or more goals54%
4 or more goals32%
5 or more goals16%
Exactly
0 goals6%
1 goal16%
2 goals24%
3 goals22%
4 goals16%
5 goals9%
6 or more goals7%
Goals by team
TestedMalta: 1 or more89%
Malta: 2 or more65%
Malta: 3 or more38%
Gibraltar: 1 or more46%
Gibraltar: 2 or more12%
Gibraltar: 3 or more2%
Both teams score41%
At least one team does not score59%
Winning margin
TestedMalta by 3 or more28%
Malta by 222%
Malta by 124%
Draw18%
Gibraltar by 16%
Gibraltar by 22%
Gibraltar by 3 or more0%
Result combinations
TestedMalta win or draw92%
Either team wins (no draw)82%
Gibraltar win or draw26%
Clean sheets
TestedMalta keep a clean sheet54%
Gibraltar keep a clean sheet11%
Malta win without conceding48%
Gibraltar win without conceding5%
No goals at all6%
The first goal
Model estimateMalta score first73%
Gibraltar score first20%
No goals6%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1534%
Minutes 16-3022%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6010%
Minutes 61-756%
Minutes 76-90+5%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Malta goals down, Gibraltar goals across. The outlined one happened.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | · | · |
| 1 | 12.6 | 8.5 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | · |
| 2 | 14.4 | 8.7 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | · |
| 3 | 10.8 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | · |
| 4 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | · | · |
| 5 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half72%
A goal in the second half79%
Malta ahead at half-time53%
Level at half-time37%
Gibraltar ahead at half-time10%
Malta win the second half59%
Second half level31%
Gibraltar win the second half9%
More goals in the first half31%
More goals in the second half43%
Same goals in both halves25%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateMalta ahead at half-time, Malta win50%
Level at half-time, Malta win21%
Gibraltar ahead at half-time, Malta win3%
Malta ahead at half-time, draw3%
Level at half-time, draw12%
Gibraltar ahead at half-time, draw3%
Malta ahead at half-time, Gibraltar win0%
Level at half-time, Gibraltar win3%
Gibraltar ahead at half-time, Gibraltar win4%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
MaltaGibraltar
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works