Norway ahead.
TestedNorway win about 55 times in 100. The other 45: a draw (26) or a Wales win (19).
Forecast by Vesta, published Thursday 1 October 2026, 17:41 CEST on our social channels, before kickoff.
Final score 2–1: Vesta gave this result 19%. Not the favourite: a probability says how often, not which one.
3 or more goals44%
Both teams score46%
Expected goals0.8 v 1.6
Most likely score0-113% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals91%
2 or more goals71%
3 or more goals44%
4 or more goals23%
5 or more goals10%
Exactly
0 goals9%
1 goal20%
2 goals27%
3 goals21%
4 goals13%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals4%
Goals by team
TestedWales: 1 or more57%
Wales: 2 or more20%
Wales: 3 or more5%
Norway: 1 or more80%
Norway: 2 or more48%
Norway: 3 or more22%
Both teams score46%
At least one team does not score54%
Winning margin
TestedWales by 3 or more1%
Wales by 25%
Wales by 113%
Draw27%
Norway by 125%
Norway by 217%
Norway by 3 or more13%
Result combinations
TestedWales win or draw45%
Either team wins (no draw)73%
Norway win or draw81%
Clean sheets
TestedWales keep a clean sheet20%
Norway keep a clean sheet43%
Wales win without conceding11%
Norway win without conceding34%
No goals at all9%
The first goal
Model estimateWales score first31%
Norway score first60%
No goals9%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1529%
Minutes 16-3021%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Wales goals down, Norway goals across. The outlined one happened.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 13.3 | 11.1 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 12.5 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half67%
A goal in the second half74%
Wales ahead at half-time17%
Level at half-time43%
Norway ahead at half-time40%
Wales win the second half18%
Second half level38%
Norway win the second half43%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half42%
Same goals in both halves28%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateWales ahead at half-time, Wales win10%
Level at half-time, Wales win7%
Norway ahead at half-time, Wales win1%
Wales ahead at half-time, draw4%
Level at half-time, draw17%
Norway ahead at half-time, draw5%
Wales ahead at half-time, Norway win3%
Level at half-time, Norway win18%
Norway ahead at half-time, Norway win34%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
WalesNorway
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works