- National teams
- CONCACAF Nations League
Saint Kitts and Nevis v Cuba
34%Saint Kitts and Nevis
30%Draw
36%Cuba
Too close to call.
TestedOut of 100: Saint Kitts and Nevis 34, draw 30, Cuba 36. No result stands out.
Forecast by Vesta, published Friday 2 October 2026, 17:51 CEST, before kickoff.
Final score 3–3: Vesta gave this result 30%. Not the favourite: a probability says how often, not which one.
3 or more goals41%
Both teams score48%
Expected goals1.1 v 1.2
Most likely score1-114% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals89%
2 or more goals68%
3 or more goals41%
4 or more goals21%
5 or more goals9%
Exactly
0 goals11%
1 goal22%
2 goals27%
3 goals20%
4 goals12%
5 goals5%
6 or more goals3%
Goals by team
TestedSaint Kitts and Nevis: 1 or more68%
Saint Kitts and Nevis: 2 or more32%
Saint Kitts and Nevis: 3 or more11%
Cuba: 1 or more69%
Cuba: 2 or more33%
Cuba: 3 or more12%
Both teams score48%
At least one team does not score52%
Winning margin
TestedSaint Kitts and Nevis by 3 or more4%
Saint Kitts and Nevis by 210%
Saint Kitts and Nevis by 120%
Draw30%
Cuba by 121%
Cuba by 210%
Cuba by 3 or more5%
Result combinations
TestedSaint Kitts and Nevis win or draw64%
Either team wins (no draw)70%
Cuba win or draw66%
Clean sheets
TestedSaint Kitts and Nevis keep a clean sheet31%
Cuba keep a clean sheet32%
Saint Kitts and Nevis win without conceding20%
Cuba win without conceding21%
No goals at all11%
The first goal
Model estimateSaint Kitts and Nevis score first44%
Cuba score first46%
No goals11%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1529%
Minutes 16-3020%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Saint Kitts and Nevis goals down, Cuba goals across. The outlined one happened.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 10.9 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 14.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | · |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half65%
A goal in the second half71%
Saint Kitts and Nevis ahead at half-time27%
Level at half-time46%
Cuba ahead at half-time28%
Saint Kitts and Nevis win the second half28%
Second half level42%
Cuba win the second half29%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half41%
Same goals in both halves29%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateSaint Kitts and Nevis ahead at half-time, Saint Kitts and Nevis win20%
Level at half-time, Saint Kitts and Nevis win13%
Cuba ahead at half-time, Saint Kitts and Nevis win2%
Saint Kitts and Nevis ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw20%
Cuba ahead at half-time, draw5%
Saint Kitts and Nevis ahead at half-time, Cuba win2%
Level at half-time, Cuba win13%
Cuba ahead at half-time, Cuba win21%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
Saint Kitts and NevisCuba
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works