- National teams
- CONCACAF Nations League
Barbados v Bermuda
40%Barbados
30%Draw
30%Bermuda
Barbados, just.
TestedBarbados win about 40 times in 100. The other 60: a draw (30) or a Bermuda win (30).
Forecast by Vesta, published Friday 2 October 2026, 17:51 CEST, before kickoff.
Final score 4–1: Vesta gave this result 40%. The favourite came through.
3 or more goals41%
Both teams score48%
Expected goals1.3 v 1.1
Most likely score1-114% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals90%
2 or more goals68%
3 or more goals41%
4 or more goals21%
5 or more goals9%
Exactly
0 goals10%
1 goal21%
2 goals27%
3 goals20%
4 goals12%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals3%
Goals by team
TestedBarbados: 1 or more72%
Barbados: 2 or more36%
Barbados: 3 or more14%
Bermuda: 1 or more65%
Bermuda: 2 or more28%
Bermuda: 3 or more9%
Both teams score48%
At least one team does not score52%
Winning margin
TestedBarbados by 3 or more6%
Barbados by 212%
Barbados by 122%
Draw30%
Bermuda by 118%
Bermuda by 28%
Bermuda by 3 or more3%
Result combinations
TestedBarbados win or draw70%
Either team wins (no draw)70%
Bermuda win or draw60%
Clean sheets
TestedBarbados keep a clean sheet35%
Bermuda keep a clean sheet28%
Barbados win without conceding24%
Bermuda win without conceding18%
No goals at all10%
The first goal
Model estimateBarbados score first49%
Bermuda score first41%
No goals10%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1528%
Minutes 16-3020%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Barbados goals down, Bermuda goals across. The outlined one happened.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 14.0 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | · |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half64%
A goal in the second half72%
Barbados ahead at half-time30%
Level at half-time46%
Bermuda ahead at half-time24%
Barbados win the second half33%
Second half level41%
Bermuda win the second half26%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half42%
Same goals in both halves29%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateBarbados ahead at half-time, Barbados win24%
Level at half-time, Barbados win15%
Bermuda ahead at half-time, Barbados win2%
Barbados ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw20%
Bermuda ahead at half-time, draw5%
Barbados ahead at half-time, Bermuda win2%
Level at half-time, Bermuda win11%
Bermuda ahead at half-time, Bermuda win17%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
BarbadosBermuda
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works