Grenada, just.
TestedGrenada win about 39 times in 100. The other 61: a draw (30) or a Bonaire win (31).
Forecast by Vesta, published Friday 2 October 2026, 17:51 CEST, before kickoff.
Final score 2–3: Vesta gave this result 39%. The favourite came through.
3 or more goals41%
Both teams score48%
Expected goals1.1 v 1.2
Most likely score1-114% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals90%
2 or more goals68%
3 or more goals41%
4 or more goals21%
5 or more goals9%
Exactly
0 goals10%
1 goal21%
2 goals27%
3 goals20%
4 goals12%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals3%
Goals by team
TestedBonaire: 1 or more66%
Bonaire: 2 or more29%
Bonaire: 3 or more9%
Grenada: 1 or more71%
Grenada: 2 or more35%
Grenada: 3 or more13%
Both teams score48%
At least one team does not score52%
Winning margin
TestedBonaire by 3 or more4%
Bonaire by 29%
Bonaire by 119%
Draw30%
Grenada by 122%
Grenada by 212%
Grenada by 3 or more6%
Result combinations
TestedBonaire win or draw61%
Either team wins (no draw)70%
Grenada win or draw69%
Clean sheets
TestedBonaire keep a clean sheet29%
Grenada keep a clean sheet34%
Bonaire win without conceding18%
Grenada win without conceding23%
No goals at all10%
The first goal
Model estimateBonaire score first41%
Grenada score first48%
No goals10%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1528%
Minutes 16-3020%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-758%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Bonaire goals down, Grenada goals across. The outlined one happened.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 14.1 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | · | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half65%
A goal in the second half72%
Bonaire ahead at half-time25%
Level at half-time45%
Grenada ahead at half-time30%
Bonaire win the second half27%
Second half level41%
Grenada win the second half32%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half41%
Same goals in both halves29%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateBonaire ahead at half-time, Bonaire win18%
Level at half-time, Bonaire win12%
Grenada ahead at half-time, Bonaire win2%
Bonaire ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw19%
Grenada ahead at half-time, draw5%
Bonaire ahead at half-time, Grenada win2%
Level at half-time, Grenada win14%
Grenada ahead at half-time, Grenada win23%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
BonaireGrenada
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works