- National teams
- UEFA Nations League
Azerbaijan v Lithuania
50%Azerbaijan
28%Draw
22%Lithuania
Azerbaijan ahead.
TestedAzerbaijan win about 50 times in 100. The other 50: a draw (28) or a Lithuania win (22).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 12:53 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals43%
Both teams score47%
Expected goals1.5 v 0.9
Most likely score1-113% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals90%
2 or more goals70%
3 or more goals43%
4 or more goals22%
5 or more goals10%
Exactly
0 goals10%
1 goal21%
2 goals27%
3 goals21%
4 goals13%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals4%
Goals by team
TestedAzerbaijan: 1 or more78%
Azerbaijan: 2 or more44%
Azerbaijan: 3 or more19%
Lithuania: 1 or more59%
Lithuania: 2 or more23%
Lithuania: 3 or more6%
Both teams score47%
At least one team does not score53%
Winning margin
TestedAzerbaijan by 3 or more11%
Azerbaijan by 216%
Azerbaijan by 124%
Draw28%
Lithuania by 114%
Lithuania by 25%
Lithuania by 3 or more2%
Result combinations
TestedAzerbaijan win or draw78%
Either team wins (no draw)72%
Lithuania win or draw49%
Clean sheets
TestedAzerbaijan keep a clean sheet41%
Lithuania keep a clean sheet22%
Azerbaijan win without conceding31%
Lithuania win without conceding13%
No goals at all10%
The first goal
Model estimateAzerbaijan score first56%
Lithuania score first34%
No goals10%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1529%
Minutes 16-3021%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Azerbaijan goals down, Lithuania goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | · |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.1 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | · |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | · |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half66%
A goal in the second half73%
Azerbaijan ahead at half-time37%
Level at half-time44%
Lithuania ahead at half-time19%
Azerbaijan win the second half41%
Second half level39%
Lithuania win the second half20%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half42%
Same goals in both halves28%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateAzerbaijan ahead at half-time, Azerbaijan win31%
Level at half-time, Azerbaijan win17%
Lithuania ahead at half-time, Azerbaijan win2%
Azerbaijan ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw18%
Lithuania ahead at half-time, draw5%
Azerbaijan ahead at half-time, Lithuania win1%
Level at half-time, Lithuania win8%
Lithuania ahead at half-time, Lithuania win12%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
AzerbaijanLithuania
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works