- National teams
- Friendly
Comoros v Senegal
12%Comoros
22%Draw
66%Senegal
Senegal, clearly.
TestedSenegal win about 66 times in 100. The other 34: a draw (22) or a Comoros win (12).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 12:53 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals49%
Both teams score43%
Expected goals0.7 v 2.0
Most likely score0-213% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals92%
2 or more goals74%
3 or more goals49%
4 or more goals27%
5 or more goals13%
Exactly
0 goals8%
1 goal18%
2 goals25%
3 goals22%
4 goals15%
5 goals8%
6 or more goals5%
Goals by team
TestedComoros: 1 or more50%
Comoros: 2 or more15%
Comoros: 3 or more3%
Senegal: 1 or more86%
Senegal: 2 or more58%
Senegal: 3 or more31%
Both teams score43%
At least one team does not score57%
Winning margin
TestedComoros by 3 or more1%
Comoros by 23%
Comoros by 19%
Draw22%
Senegal by 125%
Senegal by 221%
Senegal by 3 or more21%
Result combinations
TestedComoros win or draw34%
Either team wins (no draw)78%
Senegal win or draw88%
Clean sheets
TestedComoros keep a clean sheet14%
Senegal keep a clean sheet50%
Comoros win without conceding7%
Senegal win without conceding42%
No goals at all8%
The first goal
Model estimateComoros score first24%
Senegal score first68%
No goals8%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1531%
Minutes 16-3022%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Comoros goals down, Senegal goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half70%
A goal in the second half76%
Comoros ahead at half-time12%
Level at half-time39%
Senegal ahead at half-time49%
Comoros win the second half13%
Second half level34%
Senegal win the second half53%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half43%
Same goals in both halves27%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateComoros ahead at half-time, Comoros win6%
Level at half-time, Comoros win5%
Senegal ahead at half-time, Comoros win1%
Comoros ahead at half-time, draw3%
Level at half-time, draw14%
Senegal ahead at half-time, draw4%
Comoros ahead at half-time, Senegal win3%
Level at half-time, Senegal win20%
Senegal ahead at half-time, Senegal win44%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
ComorosSenegal
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works