- National teams
- UEFA Nations League
Wales v Denmark
31%Wales
30%Draw
39%Denmark
Denmark, just.
TestedDenmark win about 39 times in 100. The other 61: a draw (30) or a Wales win (31).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 12:54 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals41%
Both teams score48%
Expected goals1.1 v 1.3
Most likely score1-114% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals90%
2 or more goals68%
3 or more goals41%
4 or more goals21%
5 or more goals9%
Exactly
0 goals10%
1 goal21%
2 goals27%
3 goals20%
4 goals12%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals3%
Goals by team
TestedWales: 1 or more66%
Wales: 2 or more29%
Wales: 3 or more9%
Denmark: 1 or more72%
Denmark: 2 or more36%
Denmark: 3 or more13%
Both teams score48%
At least one team does not score52%
Winning margin
TestedWales by 3 or more4%
Wales by 28%
Wales by 119%
Draw30%
Denmark by 122%
Denmark by 212%
Denmark by 3 or more6%
Result combinations
TestedWales win or draw60%
Either team wins (no draw)70%
Denmark win or draw69%
Clean sheets
TestedWales keep a clean sheet28%
Denmark keep a clean sheet34%
Wales win without conceding18%
Denmark win without conceding24%
No goals at all10%
The first goal
Model estimateWales score first41%
Denmark score first48%
No goals10%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1528%
Minutes 16-3021%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-758%
Minutes 76-90+7%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Wales goals down, Denmark goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 11.6 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 14.0 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | · | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half65%
A goal in the second half72%
Wales ahead at half-time25%
Level at half-time45%
Denmark ahead at half-time30%
Wales win the second half26%
Second half level41%
Denmark win the second half33%
More goals in the first half29%
More goals in the second half41%
Same goals in both halves30%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateWales ahead at half-time, Wales win17%
Level at half-time, Wales win11%
Denmark ahead at half-time, Wales win2%
Wales ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw19%
Denmark ahead at half-time, draw5%
Wales ahead at half-time, Denmark win2%
Level at half-time, Denmark win14%
Denmark ahead at half-time, Denmark win23%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
WalesDenmark
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works