Colombia, clearly.
TestedColombia win about 66 times in 100. The other 34: a draw (22) or a Paraguay win (12).
Forecast by Vesta, published Friday 2 October 2026, 17:51 CEST, before kickoff.
Final score 0–1: Vesta gave this result 12%. Not the favourite: a probability says how often, not which one.
3 or more goals49%
Both teams score43%
Expected goals2.0 v 0.7
Most likely score2-013% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals92%
2 or more goals75%
3 or more goals49%
4 or more goals28%
5 or more goals13%
Exactly
0 goals8%
1 goal18%
2 goals25%
3 goals22%
4 goals15%
5 goals8%
6 or more goals5%
Goals by team
TestedColombia: 1 or more86%
Colombia: 2 or more58%
Colombia: 3 or more31%
Paraguay: 1 or more50%
Paraguay: 2 or more15%
Paraguay: 3 or more3%
Both teams score43%
At least one team does not score57%
Winning margin
TestedColombia by 3 or more21%
Colombia by 221%
Colombia by 125%
Draw22%
Paraguay by 19%
Paraguay by 23%
Paraguay by 3 or more1%
Result combinations
TestedColombia win or draw88%
Either team wins (no draw)78%
Paraguay win or draw33%
Clean sheets
TestedColombia keep a clean sheet50%
Paraguay keep a clean sheet14%
Colombia win without conceding42%
Paraguay win without conceding7%
No goals at all8%
The first goal
Model estimateColombia score first68%
Paraguay score first24%
No goals8%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1531%
Minutes 16-3022%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+5%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Colombia goals down, Paraguay goals across. The outlined one happened.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | · |
| 1 | 13.3 | 10.2 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | · |
| 2 | 13.4 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | · |
| 3 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | · |
| 4 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | · | · |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half69%
A goal in the second half77%
Colombia ahead at half-time47%
Level at half-time40%
Paraguay ahead at half-time13%
Colombia win the second half53%
Second half level34%
Paraguay win the second half13%
More goals in the first half31%
More goals in the second half43%
Same goals in both halves26%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateColombia ahead at half-time, Colombia win43%
Level at half-time, Colombia win21%
Paraguay ahead at half-time, Colombia win3%
Colombia ahead at half-time, draw4%
Level at half-time, draw14%
Paraguay ahead at half-time, draw4%
Colombia ahead at half-time, Paraguay win1%
Level at half-time, Paraguay win4%
Paraguay ahead at half-time, Paraguay win7%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
ColombiaParaguay
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works