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Egypt v South Africa
62%Egypt
24%Draw
14%South Africa
Egypt ahead.
TestedEgypt win about 62 times in 100. The other 38: a draw (24) or a South Africa win (14).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 12:53 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals47%
Both teams score45%
Expected goals1.8 v 0.7
Most likely score1-013% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals92%
2 or more goals73%
3 or more goals47%
4 or more goals26%
5 or more goals12%
Exactly
0 goals8%
1 goal19%
2 goals26%
3 goals21%
4 goals14%
5 goals7%
6 or more goals5%
Goals by team
TestedEgypt: 1 or more84%
Egypt: 2 or more54%
Egypt: 3 or more28%
South Africa: 1 or more52%
South Africa: 2 or more17%
South Africa: 3 or more4%
Both teams score45%
At least one team does not score55%
Winning margin
TestedEgypt by 3 or more18%
Egypt by 219%
Egypt by 125%
Draw24%
South Africa by 110%
South Africa by 23%
South Africa by 3 or more1%
Result combinations
TestedEgypt win or draw86%
Either team wins (no draw)76%
South Africa win or draw38%
Clean sheets
TestedEgypt keep a clean sheet48%
South Africa keep a clean sheet16%
Egypt win without conceding39%
South Africa win without conceding8%
No goals at all8%
The first goal
Model estimateEgypt score first65%
South Africa score first27%
No goals8%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1530%
Minutes 16-3021%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Egypt goals down, South Africa goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | · |
| 1 | 13.5 | 11.1 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | · |
| 2 | 12.7 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | · |
| 3 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | · |
| 4 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | · | · |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half68%
A goal in the second half76%
Egypt ahead at half-time44%
Level at half-time42%
South Africa ahead at half-time14%
Egypt win the second half50%
Second half level35%
South Africa win the second half15%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half43%
Same goals in both halves27%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateEgypt ahead at half-time, Egypt win39%
Level at half-time, Egypt win21%
South Africa ahead at half-time, Egypt win2%
Egypt ahead at half-time, draw4%
Level at half-time, draw15%
South Africa ahead at half-time, draw4%
Egypt ahead at half-time, South Africa win1%
Level at half-time, South Africa win6%
South Africa ahead at half-time, South Africa win7%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
EgyptSouth Africa
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works