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Kyrgyzstan v Lebanon
47%Kyrgyzstan
29%Draw
24%Lebanon
Kyrgyzstan, just.
TestedKyrgyzstan win about 47 times in 100. The other 53: a draw (29) or a Lebanon win (24).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 12:53 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals42%
Both teams score47%
Expected goals1.4 v 0.9
Most likely score1-113% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals90%
2 or more goals69%
3 or more goals42%
4 or more goals22%
5 or more goals9%
Exactly
0 goals10%
1 goal21%
2 goals27%
3 goals20%
4 goals12%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals3%
Goals by team
TestedKyrgyzstan: 1 or more76%
Kyrgyzstan: 2 or more42%
Kyrgyzstan: 3 or more17%
Lebanon: 1 or more61%
Lebanon: 2 or more24%
Lebanon: 3 or more7%
Both teams score47%
At least one team does not score53%
Winning margin
TestedKyrgyzstan by 3 or more9%
Kyrgyzstan by 214%
Kyrgyzstan by 124%
Draw29%
Lebanon by 116%
Lebanon by 26%
Lebanon by 3 or more2%
Result combinations
TestedKyrgyzstan win or draw76%
Either team wins (no draw)71%
Lebanon win or draw53%
Clean sheets
TestedKyrgyzstan keep a clean sheet39%
Lebanon keep a clean sheet24%
Kyrgyzstan win without conceding29%
Lebanon win without conceding14%
No goals at all10%
The first goal
Model estimateKyrgyzstan score first54%
Lebanon score first36%
No goals10%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1529%
Minutes 16-3021%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Kyrgyzstan goals down, Lebanon goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | · |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half66%
A goal in the second half73%
Kyrgyzstan ahead at half-time35%
Level at half-time44%
Lebanon ahead at half-time21%
Kyrgyzstan win the second half38%
Second half level40%
Lebanon win the second half22%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half41%
Same goals in both halves29%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateKyrgyzstan ahead at half-time, Kyrgyzstan win29%
Level at half-time, Kyrgyzstan win16%
Lebanon ahead at half-time, Kyrgyzstan win2%
Kyrgyzstan ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw18%
Lebanon ahead at half-time, draw5%
Kyrgyzstan ahead at half-time, Lebanon win1%
Level at half-time, Lebanon win10%
Lebanon ahead at half-time, Lebanon win13%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
KyrgyzstanLebanon
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works