- National teams
- UEFA Nations League
Serbia v Netherlands
21%Serbia
28%Draw
51%Netherlands
Netherlands ahead.
TestedNetherlands win about 51 times in 100. The other 49: a draw (28) or a Serbia win (21).
Forecast by Vesta, published Sunday 27 September 2026, 13:35 CEST on our social channels, before kickoff.
Final score 1–2: Vesta gave this result 51%. The favourite came through.
3 or more goals43%
Both teams score47%
Expected goals0.9 v 1.5
Most likely score0-113% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals90%
2 or more goals70%
3 or more goals43%
4 or more goals22%
5 or more goals10%
Exactly
0 goals10%
1 goal21%
2 goals27%
3 goals21%
4 goals13%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals4%
Goals by team
TestedSerbia: 1 or more59%
Serbia: 2 or more22%
Serbia: 3 or more6%
Netherlands: 1 or more78%
Netherlands: 2 or more44%
Netherlands: 3 or more19%
Both teams score47%
At least one team does not score53%
Winning margin
TestedSerbia by 3 or more2%
Serbia by 25%
Serbia by 114%
Draw28%
Netherlands by 124%
Netherlands by 216%
Netherlands by 3 or more11%
Result combinations
TestedSerbia win or draw49%
Either team wins (no draw)72%
Netherlands win or draw79%
Clean sheets
TestedSerbia keep a clean sheet22%
Netherlands keep a clean sheet41%
Serbia win without conceding12%
Netherlands win without conceding31%
No goals at all10%
The first goal
Model estimateSerbia score first34%
Netherlands score first57%
No goals10%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1528%
Minutes 16-3021%
Minutes 31-45+17%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-758%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Serbia goals down, Netherlands goals across. The outlined one happened.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 13.0 | 10.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 13.0 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | · | 0.1 | · | · | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half66%
A goal in the second half73%
Serbia ahead at half-time19%
Level at half-time44%
Netherlands ahead at half-time37%
Serbia win the second half20%
Second half level39%
Netherlands win the second half41%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half41%
Same goals in both halves28%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateSerbia ahead at half-time, Serbia win12%
Level at half-time, Serbia win8%
Netherlands ahead at half-time, Serbia win1%
Serbia ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw18%
Netherlands ahead at half-time, draw5%
Serbia ahead at half-time, Netherlands win2%
Level at half-time, Netherlands win17%
Netherlands ahead at half-time, Netherlands win31%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
SerbiaNetherlands
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works