- National teams
- CONCACAF Nations League
Costa Rica v Haiti
39%Costa Rica
30%Draw
31%Haiti
Costa Rica, just.
TestedCosta Rica win about 39 times in 100. The other 61: a draw (30) or a Haiti win (31).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 12:55 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals41%
Both teams score48%
Expected goals1.2 v 1.1
Most likely score1-114% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals90%
2 or more goals68%
3 or more goals41%
4 or more goals21%
5 or more goals9%
Exactly
0 goals10%
1 goal21%
2 goals27%
3 goals20%
4 goals12%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals3%
Goals by team
TestedCosta Rica: 1 or more71%
Costa Rica: 2 or more35%
Costa Rica: 3 or more13%
Haiti: 1 or more66%
Haiti: 2 or more30%
Haiti: 3 or more10%
Both teams score48%
At least one team does not score52%
Winning margin
TestedCosta Rica by 3 or more6%
Costa Rica by 211%
Costa Rica by 122%
Draw30%
Haiti by 119%
Haiti by 29%
Haiti by 3 or more4%
Result combinations
TestedCosta Rica win or draw69%
Either team wins (no draw)70%
Haiti win or draw61%
Clean sheets
TestedCosta Rica keep a clean sheet34%
Haiti keep a clean sheet29%
Costa Rica win without conceding23%
Haiti win without conceding18%
No goals at all10%
The first goal
Model estimateCosta Rica score first48%
Haiti score first42%
No goals10%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1528%
Minutes 16-3020%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-758%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Costa Rica goals down, Haiti goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 10.0 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 14.1 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | · |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half65%
A goal in the second half72%
Costa Rica ahead at half-time29%
Level at half-time46%
Haiti ahead at half-time25%
Costa Rica win the second half32%
Second half level41%
Haiti win the second half27%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half41%
Same goals in both halves29%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateCosta Rica ahead at half-time, Costa Rica win22%
Level at half-time, Costa Rica win15%
Haiti ahead at half-time, Costa Rica win2%
Costa Rica ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw19%
Haiti ahead at half-time, draw5%
Costa Rica ahead at half-time, Haiti win2%
Level at half-time, Haiti win11%
Haiti ahead at half-time, Haiti win18%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
Costa RicaHaiti
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works