Too close to call.
TestedOut of 100: Belgium 34, draw 30, France 36. No result stands out.
Forecast by Vesta, published Sunday 27 September 2026, 22:55 CEST on our social channels, before kickoff.
Final score 0–1: Vesta gave this result 36%. The favourite came through.
3 or more goals41%
Both teams score48%
Expected goals1.1 v 1.2
Most likely score1-114% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals89%
2 or more goals68%
3 or more goals41%
4 or more goals21%
5 or more goals9%
Exactly
0 goals11%
1 goal22%
2 goals27%
3 goals20%
4 goals12%
5 goals5%
6 or more goals3%
Goals by team
TestedBelgium: 1 or more68%
Belgium: 2 or more31%
Belgium: 3 or more11%
France: 1 or more70%
France: 2 or more33%
France: 3 or more12%
Both teams score48%
At least one team does not score52%
Winning margin
TestedBelgium by 3 or more4%
Belgium by 210%
Belgium by 120%
Draw30%
France by 121%
France by 210%
France by 3 or more5%
Result combinations
TestedBelgium win or draw64%
Either team wins (no draw)70%
France win or draw66%
Clean sheets
TestedBelgium keep a clean sheet30%
France keep a clean sheet32%
Belgium win without conceding20%
France win without conceding21%
No goals at all11%
The first goal
Model estimateBelgium score first44%
France score first46%
No goals11%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1529%
Minutes 16-3020%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-758%
Minutes 76-90+7%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Belgium goals down, France goals across. The outlined one happened.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.0 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 14.1 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | · |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half65%
A goal in the second half72%
Belgium ahead at half-time26%
Level at half-time46%
France ahead at half-time28%
Belgium win the second half29%
Second half level41%
France win the second half30%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half41%
Same goals in both halves29%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateBelgium ahead at half-time, Belgium win19%
Level at half-time, Belgium win13%
France ahead at half-time, Belgium win2%
Belgium ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw20%
France ahead at half-time, draw5%
Belgium ahead at half-time, France win2%
Level at half-time, France win13%
France ahead at half-time, France win21%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
BelgiumFrance
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works