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Mauritius v Sri Lanka
66%Mauritius
22%Draw
12%Sri Lanka
Mauritius, clearly.
TestedMauritius win about 66 times in 100. The other 34: a draw (22) or a Sri Lanka win (12).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 12:55 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals49%
Both teams score44%
Expected goals1.9 v 0.7
Most likely score1-013% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals92%
2 or more goals74%
3 or more goals49%
4 or more goals27%
5 or more goals13%
Exactly
0 goals8%
1 goal18%
2 goals25%
3 goals22%
4 goals14%
5 goals8%
6 or more goals5%
Goals by team
TestedMauritius: 1 or more85%
Mauritius: 2 or more57%
Mauritius: 3 or more30%
Sri Lanka: 1 or more50%
Sri Lanka: 2 or more16%
Sri Lanka: 3 or more3%
Both teams score44%
At least one team does not score56%
Winning margin
TestedMauritius by 3 or more20%
Mauritius by 220%
Mauritius by 125%
Draw22%
Sri Lanka by 19%
Sri Lanka by 23%
Sri Lanka by 3 or more1%
Result combinations
TestedMauritius win or draw88%
Either team wins (no draw)78%
Sri Lanka win or draw34%
Clean sheets
TestedMauritius keep a clean sheet50%
Sri Lanka keep a clean sheet15%
Mauritius win without conceding42%
Sri Lanka win without conceding7%
No goals at all8%
The first goal
Model estimateMauritius score first68%
Sri Lanka score first24%
No goals8%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1531%
Minutes 16-3021%
Minutes 31-45+17%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Mauritius goals down, Sri Lanka goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | · |
| 1 | 13.4 | 10.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | · |
| 2 | 13.3 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | · |
| 3 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | · |
| 4 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | · | · |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half68%
A goal in the second half77%
Mauritius ahead at half-time47%
Level at half-time40%
Sri Lanka ahead at half-time12%
Mauritius win the second half52%
Second half level35%
Sri Lanka win the second half13%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half44%
Same goals in both halves27%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateMauritius ahead at half-time, Mauritius win43%
Level at half-time, Mauritius win21%
Sri Lanka ahead at half-time, Mauritius win2%
Mauritius ahead at half-time, draw4%
Level at half-time, draw15%
Sri Lanka ahead at half-time, draw4%
Mauritius ahead at half-time, Sri Lanka win1%
Level at half-time, Sri Lanka win5%
Sri Lanka ahead at half-time, Sri Lanka win6%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
MauritiusSri Lanka
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works