Rwanda ahead.
TestedRwanda win about 53 times in 100. The other 47: a draw (27) or a Kenya win (20).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 12:55 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals44%
Both teams score46%
Expected goals1.6 v 0.9
Most likely score1-013% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals91%
2 or more goals70%
3 or more goals44%
4 or more goals23%
5 or more goals10%
Exactly
0 goals9%
1 goal20%
2 goals27%
3 goals21%
4 goals13%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals4%
Goals by team
TestedRwanda: 1 or more79%
Rwanda: 2 or more46%
Rwanda: 3 or more21%
Kenya: 1 or more58%
Kenya: 2 or more21%
Kenya: 3 or more6%
Both teams score46%
At least one team does not score54%
Winning margin
TestedRwanda by 3 or more12%
Rwanda by 216%
Rwanda by 125%
Draw27%
Kenya by 113%
Kenya by 25%
Kenya by 3 or more2%
Result combinations
TestedRwanda win or draw80%
Either team wins (no draw)73%
Kenya win or draw47%
Clean sheets
TestedRwanda keep a clean sheet42%
Kenya keep a clean sheet21%
Rwanda win without conceding33%
Kenya win without conceding12%
No goals at all9%
The first goal
Model estimateRwanda score first58%
Kenya score first32%
No goals9%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1529%
Minutes 16-3021%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-758%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Rwanda goals down, Kenya goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | · |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.8 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | · |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | · |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half66%
A goal in the second half73%
Rwanda ahead at half-time38%
Level at half-time43%
Kenya ahead at half-time18%
Rwanda win the second half42%
Second half level39%
Kenya win the second half19%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half42%
Same goals in both halves28%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateRwanda ahead at half-time, Rwanda win33%
Level at half-time, Rwanda win18%
Kenya ahead at half-time, Rwanda win3%
Rwanda ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw18%
Kenya ahead at half-time, draw5%
Rwanda ahead at half-time, Kenya win1%
Level at half-time, Kenya win8%
Kenya ahead at half-time, Kenya win11%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
RwandaKenya
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works