Algeria, clearly.
TestedAlgeria win about 84 times in 100. The other 16: a draw (12) or a Niger win (4).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 12:59 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals63%
Both teams score37%
Expected goals2.7 v 0.5
Most likely score2-015% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals96%
2 or more goals83%
3 or more goals63%
4 or more goals41%
5 or more goals23%
Exactly
0 goals4%
1 goal12%
2 goals21%
3 goals22%
4 goals18%
5 goals12%
6 or more goals11%
Goals by team
TestedAlgeria: 1 or more93%
Algeria: 2 or more76%
Algeria: 3 or more51%
Niger: 1 or more39%
Niger: 2 or more9%
Niger: 3 or more1%
Both teams score37%
At least one team does not score63%
Winning margin
TestedAlgeria by 3 or more41%
Algeria by 223%
Algeria by 120%
Draw12%
Niger by 13%
Niger by 21%
Niger by 3 or more0%
Result combinations
TestedAlgeria win or draw96%
Either team wins (no draw)88%
Niger win or draw16%
Clean sheets
TestedAlgeria keep a clean sheet61%
Niger keep a clean sheet7%
Algeria win without conceding57%
Niger win without conceding2%
No goals at all4%
The first goal
Model estimateAlgeria score first81%
Niger score first15%
No goals4%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1537%
Minutes 16-3024%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6010%
Minutes 61-756%
Minutes 76-90+4%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Algeria goals down, Niger goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | · | · |
| 1 | 10.5 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 0.2 | · | · |
| 2 | 14.7 | 7.2 | 1.9 | 0.3 | · | · |
| 3 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | · | · |
| 4 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | · | · |
| 5 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half76%
A goal in the second half83%
Algeria ahead at half-time63%
Level at half-time31%
Niger ahead at half-time7%
Algeria win the second half69%
Second half level25%
Niger win the second half6%
More goals in the first half31%
More goals in the second half45%
Same goals in both halves23%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateAlgeria ahead at half-time, Algeria win60%
Level at half-time, Algeria win21%
Niger ahead at half-time, Algeria win2%
Algeria ahead at half-time, draw2%
Level at half-time, draw8%
Niger ahead at half-time, draw2%
Algeria ahead at half-time, Niger win0%
Level at half-time, Niger win2%
Niger ahead at half-time, Niger win2%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
AlgeriaNiger
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works