- National teams
- UEFA Nations League
Belarus v Finland
42%Belarus
30%Draw
28%Finland
Belarus, just.
TestedBelarus win about 42 times in 100. The other 58: a draw (30) or a Finland win (28).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 18:45 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals41%
Both teams score48%
Expected goals1.3 v 1.0
Most likely score1-114% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals90%
2 or more goals68%
3 or more goals41%
4 or more goals21%
5 or more goals9%
Exactly
0 goals10%
1 goal21%
2 goals27%
3 goals20%
4 goals12%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals3%
Goals by team
TestedBelarus: 1 or more73%
Belarus: 2 or more38%
Belarus: 3 or more14%
Finland: 1 or more64%
Finland: 2 or more27%
Finland: 3 or more9%
Both teams score48%
At least one team does not score52%
Winning margin
TestedBelarus by 3 or more7%
Belarus by 213%
Belarus by 123%
Draw30%
Finland by 118%
Finland by 28%
Finland by 3 or more3%
Result combinations
TestedBelarus win or draw72%
Either team wins (no draw)70%
Finland win or draw58%
Clean sheets
TestedBelarus keep a clean sheet36%
Finland keep a clean sheet27%
Belarus win without conceding25%
Finland win without conceding17%
No goals at all10%
The first goal
Model estimateBelarus score first50%
Finland score first39%
No goals10%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1528%
Minutes 16-3020%
Minutes 31-45+17%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-758%
Minutes 76-90+7%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Belarus goals down, Finland goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.9 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | · |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half64%
A goal in the second half73%
Belarus ahead at half-time31%
Level at half-time46%
Finland ahead at half-time23%
Belarus win the second half34%
Second half level40%
Finland win the second half25%
More goals in the first half29%
More goals in the second half42%
Same goals in both halves29%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateBelarus ahead at half-time, Belarus win24%
Level at half-time, Belarus win16%
Finland ahead at half-time, Belarus win2%
Belarus ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw19%
Finland ahead at half-time, draw5%
Belarus ahead at half-time, Finland win2%
Level at half-time, Finland win11%
Finland ahead at half-time, Finland win16%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
BelarusFinland
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works