Finland, just.
TestedFinland win about 48 times in 100. The other 52: a draw (28) or a Belarus win (24).
Forecast by Vesta, published Tuesday 29 September 2026, 12:06 CEST on our social channels, before kickoff.
Final score 0–0: Vesta gave this result 28%. Not the favourite: a probability says how often, not which one.
3 or more goals42%
Both teams score47%
Expected goals1.4 v 0.9
Most likely score1-113% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals90%
2 or more goals69%
3 or more goals42%
4 or more goals22%
5 or more goals9%
Exactly
0 goals10%
1 goal21%
2 goals27%
3 goals21%
4 goals12%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals3%
Goals by team
TestedFinland: 1 or more76%
Finland: 2 or more42%
Finland: 3 or more18%
Belarus: 1 or more61%
Belarus: 2 or more24%
Belarus: 3 or more7%
Both teams score47%
At least one team does not score53%
Winning margin
TestedFinland by 3 or more9%
Finland by 215%
Finland by 124%
Draw28%
Belarus by 115%
Belarus by 26%
Belarus by 3 or more2%
Result combinations
TestedFinland win or draw76%
Either team wins (no draw)72%
Belarus win or draw52%
Clean sheets
TestedFinland keep a clean sheet39%
Belarus keep a clean sheet24%
Finland win without conceding29%
Belarus win without conceding14%
No goals at all10%
The first goal
Model estimateFinland score first55%
Belarus score first35%
No goals10%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1529%
Minutes 16-3020%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-758%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Finland goals down, Belarus goals across. The outlined one happened.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.4 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | · |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half65%
A goal in the second half73%
Finland ahead at half-time35%
Level at half-time45%
Belarus ahead at half-time20%
Finland win the second half39%
Second half level40%
Belarus win the second half21%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half41%
Same goals in both halves29%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateFinland ahead at half-time, Finland win29%
Level at half-time, Finland win17%
Belarus ahead at half-time, Finland win2%
Finland ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw19%
Belarus ahead at half-time, draw5%
Finland ahead at half-time, Belarus win1%
Level at half-time, Belarus win10%
Belarus ahead at half-time, Belarus win13%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
FinlandBelarus
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works