- National teams
- Friendly
China v Tajikistan
57%China
26%Draw
17%Tajikistan
China ahead.
TestedChina win about 57 times in 100. The other 43: a draw (26) or a Tajikistan win (17).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 12:57 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals45%
Both teams score46%
Expected goals1.7 v 0.8
Most likely score1-013% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals91%
2 or more goals71%
3 or more goals45%
4 or more goals24%
5 or more goals11%
Exactly
0 goals9%
1 goal20%
2 goals26%
3 goals21%
4 goals13%
5 goals7%
6 or more goals4%
Goals by team
TestedChina: 1 or more81%
China: 2 or more50%
China: 3 or more24%
Tajikistan: 1 or more55%
Tajikistan: 2 or more19%
Tajikistan: 3 or more5%
Both teams score46%
At least one team does not score54%
Winning margin
TestedChina by 3 or more14%
China by 218%
China by 125%
Draw26%
Tajikistan by 112%
Tajikistan by 24%
Tajikistan by 3 or more1%
Result combinations
TestedChina win or draw83%
Either team wins (no draw)74%
Tajikistan win or draw43%
Clean sheets
TestedChina keep a clean sheet45%
Tajikistan keep a clean sheet19%
China win without conceding36%
Tajikistan win without conceding10%
No goals at all9%
The first goal
Model estimateChina score first61%
Tajikistan score first30%
No goals9%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1530%
Minutes 16-3021%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-758%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: China goals down, Tajikistan goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | · |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.1 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | · |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | · |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | · |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half67%
A goal in the second half74%
China ahead at half-time41%
Level at half-time43%
Tajikistan ahead at half-time17%
China win the second half46%
Second half level37%
Tajikistan win the second half16%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half43%
Same goals in both halves28%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateChina ahead at half-time, China win36%
Level at half-time, China win19%
Tajikistan ahead at half-time, China win3%
China ahead at half-time, draw4%
Level at half-time, draw17%
Tajikistan ahead at half-time, draw5%
China ahead at half-time, Tajikistan win1%
Level at half-time, Tajikistan win7%
Tajikistan ahead at half-time, Tajikistan win9%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
ChinaTajikistan
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works