Uruguay, clearly.
TestedUruguay win about 92 times in 100. The other 8: a draw (6) or an India win (2).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 12:57 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals74%
Both teams score31%
Expected goals0.4 v 3.4
Most likely score0-315% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals98%
2 or more goals90%
3 or more goals74%
4 or more goals54%
5 or more goals35%
Exactly
0 goals2%
1 goal8%
2 goals16%
3 goals20%
4 goals19%
5 goals15%
6 or more goals19%
Goals by team
TestedIndia: 1 or more32%
India: 2 or more6%
India: 3 or more1%
Uruguay: 1 or more97%
Uruguay: 2 or more86%
Uruguay: 3 or more68%
Both teams score31%
At least one team does not score69%
Winning margin
TestedIndia by 3 or more0%
India by 20%
India by 11%
Draw6%
Uruguay by 113%
Uruguay by 219%
Uruguay by 3 or more59%
Result combinations
TestedIndia win or draw8%
Either team wins (no draw)94%
Uruguay win or draw98%
Clean sheets
TestedIndia keep a clean sheet3%
Uruguay keep a clean sheet67%
India win without conceding1%
Uruguay win without conceding65%
No goals at all2%
The first goal
Model estimateIndia score first10%
Uruguay score first88%
No goals2%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1543%
Minutes 16-3025%
Minutes 31-45+15%
Minutes 46-608%
Minutes 61-754%
Minutes 76-90+3%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: India goals down, Uruguay goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 7.1 | 12.5 | 14.6 | 12.7 | 8.9 |
| 1 | 0.7 | 3.0 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 3.5 |
| 2 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | · | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 4 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half83%
A goal in the second half88%
India ahead at half-time4%
Level at half-time22%
Uruguay ahead at half-time74%
India win the second half4%
Second half level18%
Uruguay win the second half79%
More goals in the first half33%
More goals in the second half46%
Same goals in both halves21%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateIndia ahead at half-time, India win1%
Level at half-time, India win1%
Uruguay ahead at half-time, India win0%
India ahead at half-time, draw1%
Level at half-time, draw4%
Uruguay ahead at half-time, draw1%
India ahead at half-time, Uruguay win2%
Level at half-time, Uruguay win17%
Uruguay ahead at half-time, Uruguay win73%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
IndiaUruguay
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works