- National teams
- UEFA Nations League
Luxembourg v Bulgaria
42%Luxembourg
29%Draw
29%Bulgaria
Luxembourg, just.
TestedLuxembourg win about 42 times in 100. The other 58: a draw (29) or a Bulgaria win (29).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 12:58 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals41%
Both teams score48%
Expected goals1.3 v 1.0
Most likely score1-114% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals90%
2 or more goals68%
3 or more goals41%
4 or more goals21%
5 or more goals9%
Exactly
0 goals10%
1 goal21%
2 goals27%
3 goals20%
4 goals12%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals3%
Goals by team
TestedLuxembourg: 1 or more73%
Luxembourg: 2 or more37%
Luxembourg: 3 or more14%
Bulgaria: 1 or more65%
Bulgaria: 2 or more28%
Bulgaria: 3 or more9%
Both teams score48%
At least one team does not score52%
Winning margin
TestedLuxembourg by 3 or more7%
Luxembourg by 212%
Luxembourg by 122%
Draw30%
Bulgaria by 118%
Bulgaria by 28%
Bulgaria by 3 or more3%
Result combinations
TestedLuxembourg win or draw71%
Either team wins (no draw)70%
Bulgaria win or draw58%
Clean sheets
TestedLuxembourg keep a clean sheet35%
Bulgaria keep a clean sheet27%
Luxembourg win without conceding25%
Bulgaria win without conceding17%
No goals at all10%
The first goal
Model estimateLuxembourg score first50%
Bulgaria score first40%
No goals10%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1529%
Minutes 16-3020%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+7%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Luxembourg goals down, Bulgaria goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.9 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | · |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half65%
A goal in the second half72%
Luxembourg ahead at half-time31%
Level at half-time46%
Bulgaria ahead at half-time23%
Luxembourg win the second half34%
Second half level41%
Bulgaria win the second half25%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half41%
Same goals in both halves29%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateLuxembourg ahead at half-time, Luxembourg win25%
Level at half-time, Luxembourg win15%
Bulgaria ahead at half-time, Luxembourg win2%
Luxembourg ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw20%
Bulgaria ahead at half-time, draw5%
Luxembourg ahead at half-time, Bulgaria win2%
Level at half-time, Bulgaria win11%
Bulgaria ahead at half-time, Bulgaria win16%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
LuxembourgBulgaria
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works