Alaves v Atletico Madrid

Each player's chance to score and to assist, from Vesta's expected goals for his team, his expected goals and goals per 90 minutes, and the minutes he is likely to play (the likely line-ups above).

Alaves

• Lucas BoyéForward, started 5 of the last 529%to score
• MarianoForward, started 3 of the last 515%to score
• Antonio MartínezForward, started 2 of the last 511%to score
• Pablo IbáñezMidfielder, started 5 of the last 59%to score

Most likely to assist: Ángel Pérez 13%, Abderrahmane Rebbach 12%

Atletico Madrid

• Ademola LookmanLeft midfielder, started 4 of the last 519%to score
• Álex GrimaldoLeft-back, started 5 of the last 518%to score
• Lee Kang-InForward, started 5 of the last 517%to score
• Jonathan Christian DavidForward, started 2 of the last 515%to score

Most likely to assist: Álex Grimaldo 15%, Lee Kang-In 14%

What each side should make in this match, forecast by Vesta from both teams' recent numbers and the match forecast.

The chance of each team finishing first, in the top four or in the bottom three: today, and in the simulated seasons where this match ends in each result.

Everyone likely to play, by chance to score. Minutes: what we expect him to play; shots: how many he should take.

Alaves

Alaves: each player's chances

Player	Min	Score	2+	Assist	Goal or assist	Shots
Lucas Boyé	85	29%	5%	8%	35%	2.0
Mariano	53	15%	1%	10%	23%	1.1
Antonio Martínez bench	34	11%	<1%	4%	15%	0.9
Pablo Ibáñez	80	9%	<1%	4%	12%	1.2
Abderrahmane Rebbach	78	6%	<1%	12%	17%	1.0
Ville Koski	90	6%	<1%	2%	8%	0.3
Ángel Pérez	70	5%	<1%	13%	17%	0.6
Nahuel Tenaglia	81	4%	<1%	2%	6%	0.5
Denis Suárez bench	38	4%	<1%	4%	7%	0.3
Antonio Blanco	70	3%	<1%	4%	7%	0.7
Carlos Benavídez bench	27	2%	<1%	2%	4%	0.3
Mikel Rodríguez bench	11	2%	<1%	1%	3%	0.1
Ander Guevara bench	19	2%	<1%	2%	4%	0.2
Aitor Mañas bench	5	2%	<1%	<1%	2%	0.1
Carles Aleñá bench	21	2%	<1%	4%	5%	0.2
Nicolás Valentini	45	1%	<1%	1%	3%	0.3
Jonny	71	1%	<1%	2%	3%	0.2
Youssef Lekhedim bench	19	<1%	<1%	2%	3%	0.1
Antonio Sivera	90	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	0.0

Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid: each player's chances

Player	Min	Score	2+	Assist	Goal or assist	Shots
Ademola Lookman	61	19%	2%	7%	24%	1.4
Álex Grimaldo	89	18%	2%	15%	30%	1.6
Lee Kang-In	76	17%	1%	14%	28%	1.8
Jonathan Christian David bench	33	15%	1%	5%	19%	0.7
Álex Baena	78	15%	1%	13%	26%	1.5
Giuliano Simeone	71	13%	<1%	10%	22%	1.0
Cristian Romero	55	5%	<1%	3%	7%	0.4
Marc Pubill	68	5%	<1%	2%	7%	0.4
Morten Hjulmand	50	5%	<1%	3%	8%	0.6
Marcos Llorente	80	4%	<1%	8%	12%	0.5
Julián Álvarez bench	10	4%	<1%	2%	5%	0.3
David Hancko	73	3%	<1%	4%	7%	0.6
Pablo Barrios Rivas bench	36	3%	<1%	3%	5%	0.4
Koke bench	40	2%	<1%	3%	6%	0.3
Arnau Ortiz bench	16	2%	<1%	1%	4%	0.2
Johnny Cardoso bench	43	2%	<1%	3%	5%	0.3
Robin Le Normand bench	18	1%	<1%	<1%	2%	0.1
Jan Oblak	90	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	0.0