Barcelona v Getafe
Barcelona, clearly.
TestedBarcelona win about 88 times in 100. The other 12: a draw (9) or a Getafe win (3).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 18:43 CEST, before kickoff.
Likely line-ups
Our estimate from recent matches; the confirmed ones replace it about an hour before kickoffPlayers to watch
Model estimateEach player's chance to score and to assist, from Vesta's expected goals for his team, his expected goals and goals per 90 minutes, and the minutes he is likely to play (the likely line-ups above).
Numbers to expect
Forecast by VestaWhat each side should make in this match, forecast by Vesta from both teams' recent numbers and the match forecast.
What's at stake
Model estimateThe chance of each team finishing first, in the top four or in the bottom three: today, and in the simulated seasons where this match ends in each result.
| Team and chance | Now | Barcelona win | Draw | Getafe win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | ||||
| Title | 94% | 94% | 91% | 90% |
| Getafe | ||||
| Bottom 3 | 34% | 36% | 29% | 18% |
Goals in the match
TestedExactly
Goals by team
TestedWinning margin
TestedResult combinations
TestedClean sheets
TestedThe first goal
Model estimateWhen it comes
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Barcelona goals down, Getafe goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | · | · |
| 1 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | · | · |
| 2 | 11.2 | 7.2 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | · |
| 3 | 12.4 | 8.0 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | · |
| 4 | 10.0 | 6.4 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | · | · |
Halves
TestedHalf-time and full-time
TestedWhen the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works
Every player's chances
Model estimateEveryone likely to play, by chance to score. Minutes: what we expect him to play; shots: how many he should take.
| Player | Score | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raphinha | 61% | 27% | 4.2 |
| Lamine Yamal | 49% | 37% | 4.9 |
| Anthony Gordon | 24% | 14% | 1.8 |
| Fermín López | 23% | 21% | 2.0 |
| Karim Adeyemi bench | 19% | 9% | 1.1 |
| Dani Olmo bench | 14% | 15% | 1.4 |
| Pedri | 11% | 21% | 1.1 |
| Rodri | 8% | 10% | 1.0 |
| Andreas Christensen | 6% | 4% | 0.6 |
| Eric Garcia | 6% | 4% | 0.6 |
| João Cancelo bench | 5% | 8% | 0.6 |
| Marc Bernal bench | 5% | 5% | 0.4 |
| Xavi Espart | 4% | 9% | 0.5 |
| Jules Koundé bench | 3% | 5% | 0.2 |
| Pau Cubarsí | 3% | 1% | 0.4 |
| Gerard Martín bench | 1% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Dominik Livakovic bench | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |
| Joan García | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |
| Wojciech Szczesny bench | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |
| Player | Score | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Enes Ünal | 15% | 4% | 1.2 |
| Martín Satriano | 11% | 6% | 0.8 |
| Iván Azón bench | 9% | 5% | 0.7 |
| Ramón Terrats | 5% | 6% | 0.6 |
| Mario Martín | 3% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Andrés García | 3% | 3% | 0.4 |
| Orel Mangala | 2% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Francho Serrano bench | 2% | 3% | 0.3 |
| Nemanja Gudelj | 2% | 2% | 0.4 |
| Zaid Romero | 2% | <1% | 0.2 |
| Johan Mojica | <1% | 5% | 0.2 |
| Sebastián Boselli bench | <1% | <1% | 0.1 |
| Kiko Femenía bench | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |
| Djené Dakonam | <1% | <1% | 0.1 |
| Davinchi bench | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |
| David Soria | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |



