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Barcelona v Getafe

88%Barcelona
9%Draw
3%Getafe

Barcelona, clearly.

Tested

Barcelona win about 88 times in 100. The other 12: a draw (9) or a Getafe win (3).

Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 18:43 CEST, before kickoff.

3 or more goals75%
Both teams score45%
Expected goals3.2 v 0.6
Most likely score3-012% chance

Likely line-ups

Our estimate from recent matches; the confirmed ones replace it about an hour before kickoff
Barcelona4-3-34-4-2Getafe

Players to watch

Model estimate

Each player's chance to score and to assist, from Vesta's expected goals for his team, his expected goals and goals per 90 minutes, and the minutes he is likely to play (the likely line-ups above).

Numbers to expect

Forecast by Vesta

What each side should make in this match, forecast by Vesta from both teams' recent numbers and the match forecast.

Shots19.66.6
Shots on target7.72.2
Corners7.92.7
Fouls11.113.5
Yellow cards1.72.6

What's at stake

Model estimate

The chance of each team finishing first, in the top four or in the bottom three: today, and in the simulated seasons where this match ends in each result.

What Barcelona v Getafe changes for both teams
Team and chanceNowBarcelona winDrawGetafe win
Barcelona
Title94%94%91%90%
Getafe
Bottom 334%36%29%18%

Goals in the match

Tested
1 or more goals98%
2 or more goals91%
3 or more goals75%
4 or more goals54%
5 or more goals33%

Exactly

0 goals2%
1 goal7%
2 goals16%
3 goals21%
4 goals21%
5 goals15%
6 or more goals18%

Goals by team

Tested
Barcelona: 1 or more97%
Barcelona: 2 or more85%
Barcelona: 3 or more63%
Getafe: 1 or more47%
Getafe: 2 or more12%
Getafe: 3 or more2%
Both teams score45%
At least one team does not score55%

Winning margin

Tested
Barcelona by 3 or more50%
Barcelona by 221%
Barcelona by 116%
Draw9%
Getafe by 13%
Getafe by 21%
Getafe by 3 or more0%

Result combinations

Tested
Barcelona win or draw97%
Either team wins (no draw)91%
Getafe win or draw13%

Clean sheets

Tested
Barcelona keep a clean sheet53%
Getafe keep a clean sheet3%
Barcelona win without conceding51%
Getafe win without conceding1%
No goals at all2%

The first goal

Model estimate
Barcelona score first83%
Getafe score first16%
No goals2%

When it comes

Minutes 1-1542%
Minutes 16-3024%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-609%
Minutes 61-754%
Minutes 76-90+3%

Every score

Tested

Chance of each score in percent: Barcelona goals down, Getafe goals across.

Chance of each exact score
Home goals down, away goals across012345
01.91.00.30.1··
16.24.61.20.2··
211.27.22.30.40.1·
312.48.02.30.50.1·
410.06.41.90.30.1·
56.24.01.20.2··

Halves

Tested
A goal in the first half83%
A goal in the second half88%
Barcelona ahead at half-time68%
Level at half-time26%
Getafe ahead at half-time6%
Barcelona win the second half73%
Second half level20%
Getafe win the second half6%
More goals in the first half32%
More goals in the second half47%
Same goals in both halves21%

Half-time and full-time

Tested
Barcelona ahead at half-time, Barcelona win66%
Level at half-time, Barcelona win19%
Getafe ahead at half-time, Barcelona win3%
Barcelona ahead at half-time, draw2%
Level at half-time, draw5%
Getafe ahead at half-time, draw2%
Barcelona ahead at half-time, Getafe win0%
Level at half-time, Getafe win1%
Getafe ahead at half-time, Getafe win2%

When the goals come

Model estimate

Expected goals in each 15 minutes.

1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
BarcelonaGetafe

Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works

Every player's chances

Model estimate

Everyone likely to play, by chance to score. Minutes: what we expect him to play; shots: how many he should take.

Barcelona
Barcelona: each player's chances
PlayerMinScore2+AssistGoal or assistShots
Raphinha8561%25%27%72%4.2
Lamine Yamal8649%14%37%68%4.9
Anthony Gordon6324%3%14%35%1.8
Fermín López5523%3%21%39%2.0
Karim Adeyemi bench2919%2%9%26%1.1
Dani Olmo bench3914%1%15%27%1.4
Pedri7911%<1%21%30%1.1
Rodri678%<1%10%18%1.0
Andreas Christensen606%<1%4%10%0.6
Eric Garcia606%<1%4%10%0.6
João Cancelo bench375%<1%8%13%0.6
Marc Bernal bench265%<1%5%10%0.4
Xavi Espart534%<1%9%13%0.5
Jules Koundé bench303%<1%5%8%0.2
Pau Cubarsí683%<1%1%4%0.4
Gerard Martín bench521%<1%2%3%0.2
Dominik Livakovic bench18<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0
Joan García64<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0
Wojciech Szczesny bench8<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0
Getafe
Getafe: each player's chances
PlayerMinScore2+AssistGoal or assistShots
Enes Ünal8015%1%4%18%1.2
Martín Satriano8011%<1%6%16%0.8
Iván Azón bench549%<1%5%13%0.7
Ramón Terrats715%<1%6%11%0.6
Mario Martín543%<1%2%5%0.3
Andrés García633%<1%3%5%0.4
Orel Mangala752%<1%2%5%0.3
Francho Serrano bench542%<1%3%5%0.3
Nemanja Gudelj732%<1%2%4%0.4
Zaid Romero692%<1%<1%3%0.2
Johan Mojica80<1%<1%5%6%0.2
Sebastián Boselli bench21<1%<1%<1%1%0.1
Kiko Femenía bench19<1%<1%<1%1%0.0
Djené Dakonam86<1%<1%<1%1%0.1
Davinchi bench10<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0
David Soria90<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0