1. Matches
  2. Serie A

Napoli v Frosinone

58%Napoli
25%Draw
17%Frosinone

Napoli ahead.

Tested

Napoli win about 58 times in 100. The other 42: a draw (25) or a Frosinone win (17).

Forecast by Vesta, published Wednesday 30 September 2026, 13:26 CEST, before kickoff.

3 or more goals52%
Both teams score52%
Expected goals1.9 v 0.9
Most likely score1-112% chance

Likely line-ups

Our estimate from recent matches; the confirmed ones replace it about an hour before kickoff
Napoli4-3-1-25-2-2-1Frosinone

Players to watch

Model estimate

Each player's chance to score and to assist, from Vesta's expected goals for his team, his expected goals and goals per 90 minutes, and the minutes he is likely to play (the likely line-ups above).

Numbers to expect

Forecast by Vesta

What each side should make in this match, forecast by Vesta from both teams' recent numbers and the match forecast.

Shots17.411.3
Shots on target5.23.5
Corners6.03.6
Fouls10.711.6
Yellow cards1.52.0

What's at stake

Model estimate

The chance of each team finishing first, in the top four or in the bottom three: today, and in the simulated seasons where this match ends in each result.

What Napoli v Frosinone changes for both teams
Team and chanceNowNapoli winDrawFrosinone win
Napoli
Top 426%30%23%18%
Frosinone
Top 42%1%3%3%
Bottom 31%2%1%<1%

Goals in the match

Tested
1 or more goals93%
2 or more goals77%
3 or more goals52%
4 or more goals31%
5 or more goals15%

Exactly

0 goals7%
1 goal17%
2 goals24%
3 goals21%
4 goals16%
5 goals9%
6 or more goals7%

Goals by team

Tested
Napoli: 1 or more84%
Napoli: 2 or more55%
Napoli: 3 or more28%
Frosinone: 1 or more61%
Frosinone: 2 or more24%
Frosinone: 3 or more7%
Both teams score52%
At least one team does not score48%

Winning margin

Tested
Napoli by 3 or more16%
Napoli by 218%
Napoli by 124%
Draw25%
Frosinone by 112%
Frosinone by 24%
Frosinone by 3 or more1%

Result combinations

Tested
Napoli win or draw82%
Either team wins (no draw)75%
Frosinone win or draw42%

Clean sheets

Tested
Napoli keep a clean sheet39%
Frosinone keep a clean sheet16%
Napoli win without conceding32%
Frosinone win without conceding9%
No goals at all7%

The first goal

Model estimate
Napoli score first62%
Frosinone score first31%
No goals7%

When it comes

Minutes 1-1532%
Minutes 16-3022%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+5%

Every score

Tested

Chance of each score in percent: Napoli goals down, Frosinone goals across.

Chance of each exact score
Home goals down, away goals across012345
06.65.52.50.80.2·
111.011.74.71.50.30.1
210.29.55.31.40.30.1
36.46.02.81.00.2·
43.02.81.30.40.1·
51.11.10.50.2··

Halves

Tested
A goal in the first half71%
A goal in the second half79%
Napoli ahead at half-time43%
Level at half-time40%
Frosinone ahead at half-time17%
Napoli win the second half47%
Second half level34%
Frosinone win the second half18%
More goals in the first half29%
More goals in the second half45%
Same goals in both halves26%

Half-time and full-time

Tested
Napoli ahead at half-time, Napoli win37%
Level at half-time, Napoli win18%
Frosinone ahead at half-time, Napoli win3%
Napoli ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw15%
Frosinone ahead at half-time, draw5%
Napoli ahead at half-time, Frosinone win1%
Level at half-time, Frosinone win7%
Frosinone ahead at half-time, Frosinone win9%

When the goals come

Model estimate

Expected goals in each 15 minutes.

1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
NapoliFrosinone

Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works

Every player's chances

Model estimate

Everyone likely to play, by chance to score. Minutes: what we expect him to play; shots: how many he should take.

Napoli
Napoli: each player's chances
PlayerMinScore2+AssistGoal or assistShots
Rasmus Højlund7532%6%10%39%1.9
Kevin De Bruyne5115%1%15%28%1.2
Matteo Politano6913%<1%17%28%1.6
Franck Zambo4812%<1%6%17%1.0
Alisson Santos bench3612%<1%5%16%1.3
Scott McTominay bench3011%<1%3%14%1.1
Noa Lang bench3711%<1%8%19%0.8
Lorenzo Lucca bench158%<1%3%10%0.6
Giovanni Di Lorenzo907%<1%10%16%0.9
Amir Rrahmani907%<1%4%11%0.8
Antonio Vergara bench286%<1%6%12%0.5
Stanislav Lobotka896%<1%6%12%0.6
Billy Gilmour375%<1%3%8%0.6
Leonardo Spinazzola605%<1%8%13%0.7
David Neres bench124%<1%4%8%0.3
Mathías Olivera bench324%<1%2%5%0.3
Rafa Marín883%<1%4%7%0.4
Costantino Favasuli bench113%<1%3%6%0.3
Alex Meret54<1%<1%2%2%0.0
Vanja Milinkovic-Savic bench36<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0
Frosinone
Frosinone: each player's chances
PlayerMinScore2+AssistGoal or assistShots
Antonio Raimondo8525%3%5%29%1.5
Giorgi Kvernadze8914%1%9%22%1.1
Romano Schmid758%<1%11%18%0.7
Giacomo Calo888%<1%9%16%0.9
Gabriele Bracaglia855%<1%5%9%0.5
Patrizio Masini784%<1%5%9%0.6
Farès Ghedjemis bench394%<1%2%7%0.5
Seydou Fini bench373%<1%2%6%0.3
Anthony Oyono762%<1%4%7%0.5
Gabriele Calvani872%<1%2%4%0.4
Ilario Monterisi532%<1%2%4%0.3
Matteo Cichella bench212%<1%1%3%0.2
Giorgio Cittadini531%<1%1%3%0.2
Luis Hasa bench7<1%<1%<1%1%0.1
Alessio Zerbin bench15<1%<1%1%2%0.1
Lorenzo Palmisani90<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0