- National teams
- CONCACAF Nations League
Cuba v Saint Kitts and Nevis
59%Cuba
25%Draw
16%Saint Kitts and Nevis
Cuba ahead.
TestedCuba win about 59 times in 100. The other 41: a draw (25) or a Saint Kitts and Nevis win (16).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 12:56 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals46%
Both teams score45%
Expected goals1.7 v 0.8
Most likely score1-013% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals91%
2 or more goals72%
3 or more goals46%
4 or more goals25%
5 or more goals11%
Exactly
0 goals9%
1 goal19%
2 goals26%
3 goals21%
4 goals14%
5 goals7%
6 or more goals4%
Goals by team
TestedCuba: 1 or more82%
Cuba: 2 or more51%
Cuba: 3 or more25%
Saint Kitts and Nevis: 1 or more54%
Saint Kitts and Nevis: 2 or more18%
Saint Kitts and Nevis: 3 or more4%
Both teams score45%
At least one team does not score55%
Winning margin
TestedCuba by 3 or more15%
Cuba by 218%
Cuba by 125%
Draw25%
Saint Kitts and Nevis by 111%
Saint Kitts and Nevis by 24%
Saint Kitts and Nevis by 3 or more1%
Result combinations
TestedCuba win or draw84%
Either team wins (no draw)75%
Saint Kitts and Nevis win or draw41%
Clean sheets
TestedCuba keep a clean sheet46%
Saint Kitts and Nevis keep a clean sheet18%
Cuba win without conceding37%
Saint Kitts and Nevis win without conceding9%
No goals at all9%
The first goal
Model estimateCuba score first63%
Saint Kitts and Nevis score first29%
No goals9%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1529%
Minutes 16-3022%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Cuba goals down, Saint Kitts and Nevis goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | · |
| 1 | 13.5 | 11.7 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | · |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | · |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | · |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | · | · |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half67%
A goal in the second half75%
Cuba ahead at half-time42%
Level at half-time43%
Saint Kitts and Nevis ahead at half-time15%
Cuba win the second half47%
Second half level36%
Saint Kitts and Nevis win the second half16%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half42%
Same goals in both halves28%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateCuba ahead at half-time, Cuba win37%
Level at half-time, Cuba win20%
Saint Kitts and Nevis ahead at half-time, Cuba win3%
Cuba ahead at half-time, draw4%
Level at half-time, draw16%
Saint Kitts and Nevis ahead at half-time, draw4%
Cuba ahead at half-time, Saint Kitts and Nevis win1%
Level at half-time, Saint Kitts and Nevis win7%
Saint Kitts and Nevis ahead at half-time, Saint Kitts and Nevis win8%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
CubaSaint Kitts and Nevis
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works