- National teams
- UEFA Nations League
Cyprus v Latvia
57%Cyprus
26%Draw
17%Latvia
Cyprus ahead.
TestedCyprus win about 57 times in 100. The other 43: a draw (26) or a Latvia win (17).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 12:55 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals45%
Both teams score46%
Expected goals1.7 v 0.8
Most likely score1-013% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals91%
2 or more goals71%
3 or more goals45%
4 or more goals24%
5 or more goals11%
Exactly
0 goals9%
1 goal20%
2 goals26%
3 goals21%
4 goals13%
5 goals7%
6 or more goals4%
Goals by team
TestedCyprus: 1 or more81%
Cyprus: 2 or more50%
Cyprus: 3 or more23%
Latvia: 1 or more56%
Latvia: 2 or more19%
Latvia: 3 or more5%
Both teams score46%
At least one team does not score54%
Winning margin
TestedCyprus by 3 or more14%
Cyprus by 218%
Cyprus by 125%
Draw26%
Latvia by 112%
Latvia by 24%
Latvia by 3 or more1%
Result combinations
TestedCyprus win or draw83%
Either team wins (no draw)74%
Latvia win or draw43%
Clean sheets
TestedCyprus keep a clean sheet44%
Latvia keep a clean sheet19%
Cyprus win without conceding35%
Latvia win without conceding10%
No goals at all9%
The first goal
Model estimateCyprus score first61%
Latvia score first30%
No goals9%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1529%
Minutes 16-3021%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Cyprus goals down, Latvia goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | · |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.1 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | · |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | · |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | · |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half68%
A goal in the second half74%
Cyprus ahead at half-time41%
Level at half-time42%
Latvia ahead at half-time16%
Cyprus win the second half45%
Second half level38%
Latvia win the second half17%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half42%
Same goals in both halves28%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateCyprus ahead at half-time, Cyprus win36%
Level at half-time, Cyprus win19%
Latvia ahead at half-time, Cyprus win2%
Cyprus ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw17%
Latvia ahead at half-time, draw4%
Cyprus ahead at half-time, Latvia win1%
Level at half-time, Latvia win7%
Latvia ahead at half-time, Latvia win10%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
CyprusLatvia
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works