Latvia, just.
TestedLatvia win about 42 times in 100. The other 58: a draw (30) or a Cyprus win (28).
Forecast by Vesta, published Sunday 27 September 2026, 22:55 CEST on our social channels, before kickoff.
Final score 0–0: Vesta gave this result 30%. Not the favourite: a probability says how often, not which one.
3 or more goals41%
Both teams score48%
Expected goals1.3 v 1.0
Most likely score1-114% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals90%
2 or more goals68%
3 or more goals41%
4 or more goals21%
5 or more goals9%
Exactly
0 goals10%
1 goal21%
2 goals27%
3 goals20%
4 goals12%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals3%
Goals by team
TestedLatvia: 1 or more73%
Latvia: 2 or more37%
Latvia: 3 or more14%
Cyprus: 1 or more65%
Cyprus: 2 or more28%
Cyprus: 3 or more9%
Both teams score48%
At least one team does not score52%
Winning margin
TestedLatvia by 3 or more7%
Latvia by 212%
Latvia by 122%
Draw30%
Cyprus by 118%
Cyprus by 28%
Cyprus by 3 or more3%
Result combinations
TestedLatvia win or draw71%
Either team wins (no draw)70%
Cyprus win or draw58%
Clean sheets
TestedLatvia keep a clean sheet35%
Cyprus keep a clean sheet27%
Latvia win without conceding25%
Cyprus win without conceding17%
No goals at all10%
The first goal
Model estimateLatvia score first50%
Cyprus score first39%
No goals10%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1528%
Minutes 16-3021%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-758%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Latvia goals down, Cyprus goals across. The outlined one happened.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.9 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | · |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half66%
A goal in the second half72%
Latvia ahead at half-time32%
Level at half-time45%
Cyprus ahead at half-time23%
Latvia win the second half34%
Second half level41%
Cyprus win the second half25%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half41%
Same goals in both halves29%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateLatvia ahead at half-time, Latvia win25%
Level at half-time, Latvia win15%
Cyprus ahead at half-time, Latvia win2%
Latvia ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw19%
Cyprus ahead at half-time, draw5%
Latvia ahead at half-time, Cyprus win2%
Level at half-time, Cyprus win11%
Cyprus ahead at half-time, Cyprus win16%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
LatviaCyprus
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works