- National teams
- UEFA Nations League
Albania v San Marino
99%Albania
1%Draw
0%San Marino
Albania, clearly.
TestedAlbania win about 99 times in 100. The other 1: a draw (1) or a San Marino win (0).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 12:58 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals95%
Both teams score20%
Expected goals5.1 v 0.2
Most likely score6-013% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals100%
2 or more goals99%
3 or more goals95%
4 or more goals88%
5 or more goals77%
Exactly
0 goals0%
1 goal1%
2 goals3%
3 goals7%
4 goals12%
5 goals15%
6 or more goals52%
Goals by team
TestedAlbania: 1 or more100%
Albania: 2 or more99%
Albania: 3 or more95%
San Marino: 1 or more20%
San Marino: 2 or more2%
San Marino: 3 or more0%
Both teams score20%
At least one team does not score80%
Winning margin
TestedAlbania by 3 or more83%
Albania by 25%
Albania by 12%
Draw1%
San Marino by 10%
San Marino by 20%
San Marino by 3 or more0%
Result combinations
TestedAlbania win or draw100%
Either team wins (no draw)99%
San Marino win or draw1%
Clean sheets
TestedAlbania keep a clean sheet72%
San Marino keep a clean sheet0%
Albania win without conceding72%
San Marino win without conceding0%
No goals at all0%
The first goal
Model estimateAlbania score first96%
San Marino score first3%
No goals0%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1560%
Minutes 16-3024%
Minutes 31-45+11%
Minutes 46-604%
Minutes 61-751%
Minutes 76-90+1%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Albania goals down, San Marino goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2 | · | · | · | · | · |
| 1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | · | · | · | · |
| 2 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | · | · | · |
| 3 | 6.5 | 1.4 | 0.2 | · | · | · |
| 4 | 10.0 | 2.2 | 0.2 | · | · | · |
| 5 | 12.4 | 2.7 | 0.3 | · | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half94%
A goal in the second half97%
Albania ahead at half-time92%
Level at half-time8%
San Marino ahead at half-time1%
Albania win the second half95%
Second half level4%
San Marino win the second half0%
More goals in the first half32%
More goals in the second half51%
Same goals in both halves17%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateAlbania ahead at half-time, Albania win92%
Level at half-time, Albania win7%
San Marino ahead at half-time, Albania win1%
Albania ahead at half-time, draw0%
Level at half-time, draw0%
San Marino ahead at half-time, draw0%
Albania ahead at half-time, San Marino win0%
Level at half-time, San Marino win0%
San Marino ahead at half-time, San Marino win0%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
AlbaniaSan Marino
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works