- National teams
- CONCACAF Nations League
Bermuda v Barbados
45%Bermuda
29%Draw
26%Barbados
Bermuda, just.
TestedBermuda win about 45 times in 100. The other 55: a draw (29) or a Barbados win (26).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 12:57 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals42%
Both teams score47%
Expected goals1.4 v 1.0
Most likely score1-114% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals90%
2 or more goals69%
3 or more goals42%
4 or more goals21%
5 or more goals9%
Exactly
0 goals10%
1 goal21%
2 goals27%
3 goals20%
4 goals12%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals3%
Goals by team
TestedBermuda: 1 or more75%
Bermuda: 2 or more40%
Bermuda: 3 or more16%
Barbados: 1 or more62%
Barbados: 2 or more25%
Barbados: 3 or more8%
Both teams score47%
At least one team does not score53%
Winning margin
TestedBermuda by 3 or more8%
Bermuda by 214%
Bermuda by 123%
Draw29%
Barbados by 116%
Barbados by 27%
Barbados by 3 or more3%
Result combinations
TestedBermuda win or draw74%
Either team wins (no draw)71%
Barbados win or draw55%
Clean sheets
TestedBermuda keep a clean sheet38%
Barbados keep a clean sheet25%
Bermuda win without conceding27%
Barbados win without conceding15%
No goals at all10%
The first goal
Model estimateBermuda score first53%
Barbados score first37%
No goals10%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1528%
Minutes 16-3021%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-758%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Bermuda goals down, Barbados goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.6 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | · |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half66%
A goal in the second half72%
Bermuda ahead at half-time34%
Level at half-time45%
Barbados ahead at half-time22%
Bermuda win the second half36%
Second half level40%
Barbados win the second half23%
More goals in the first half31%
More goals in the second half41%
Same goals in both halves29%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateBermuda ahead at half-time, Bermuda win28%
Level at half-time, Bermuda win15%
Barbados ahead at half-time, Bermuda win2%
Bermuda ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw19%
Barbados ahead at half-time, draw5%
Bermuda ahead at half-time, Barbados win1%
Level at half-time, Barbados win10%
Barbados ahead at half-time, Barbados win14%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
BermudaBarbados
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works