1. Matches
  2. Bundesliga

Augsburg v Bayern Munich

10%Augsburg
16%Draw
74%Bayern Munich

Bayern Munich, clearly.

Tested

Bayern Munich win about 74 times in 100. The other 26: a draw (16) or an Augsburg win (10).

Forecast by Vesta, published Wednesday 30 September 2026, 13:24 CEST, before kickoff.

3 or more goals78%
Both teams score65%
Expected goals1.1 v 3.0
Most likely score1-38% chance

Likely line-ups

Our estimate from recent matches; the confirmed ones replace it about an hour before kickoff
Augsburg6-2-1-15-2-3Bayern Munich

Players to watch

Model estimate

Each player's chance to score and to assist, from Vesta's expected goals for his team, his expected goals and goals per 90 minutes, and the minutes he is likely to play (the likely line-ups above).

Numbers to expect

Forecast by Vesta

What each side should make in this match, forecast by Vesta from both teams' recent numbers and the match forecast.

Shots10.119.2
Shots on target3.67.6
Corners3.56.6
Fouls9.29.9
Yellow cards2.11.5

What's at stake

Model estimate

The chance of each team finishing first, in the top four or in the bottom three: today, and in the simulated seasons where this match ends in each result.

What Augsburg v Bayern Munich changes for both teams
Team and chanceNowAugsburg winDrawBayern Munich win
Augsburg
Top 44%6%4%3%
Bottom 36%3%4%7%
Bayern Munich
Title93%88%90%94%

Goals in the match

Tested
1 or more goals98%
2 or more goals92%
3 or more goals78%
4 or more goals60%
5 or more goals40%

Exactly

0 goals2%
1 goal6%
2 goals14%
3 goals18%
4 goals20%
5 goals16%
6 or more goals24%

Goals by team

Tested
Augsburg: 1 or more68%
Augsburg: 2 or more32%
Augsburg: 3 or more11%
Bayern Munich: 1 or more95%
Bayern Munich: 2 or more80%
Bayern Munich: 3 or more58%
Both teams score65%
At least one team does not score35%

Winning margin

Tested
Augsburg by 3 or more1%
Augsburg by 23%
Augsburg by 17%
Draw16%
Bayern Munich by 118%
Bayern Munich by 219%
Bayern Munich by 3 or more36%

Result combinations

Tested
Augsburg win or draw26%
Either team wins (no draw)84%
Bayern Munich win or draw90%

Clean sheets

Tested
Augsburg keep a clean sheet5%
Bayern Munich keep a clean sheet32%
Augsburg win without conceding3%
Bayern Munich win without conceding30%
No goals at all2%

The first goal

Model estimate
Augsburg score first26%
Bayern Munich score first72%
No goals2%

When it comes

Minutes 1-1544%
Minutes 16-3025%
Minutes 31-45+15%
Minutes 46-608%
Minutes 61-754%
Minutes 76-90+2%

Every score

Tested

Chance of each score in percent: Augsburg goals down, Bayern Munich goals across.

Chance of each exact score
Home goals down, away goals across012345
01.84.46.97.15.43.3
11.66.27.77.96.13.8
20.92.85.34.53.42.1
30.31.11.62.01.30.8
40.10.30.50.50.40.2
5·0.10.10.10.10.1

Halves

Tested
A goal in the first half84%
A goal in the second half90%
Augsburg ahead at half-time13%
Level at half-time29%
Bayern Munich ahead at half-time58%
Augsburg win the second half14%
Second half level23%
Bayern Munich win the second half63%
More goals in the first half31%
More goals in the second half49%
Same goals in both halves21%

Half-time and full-time

Tested
Augsburg ahead at half-time, Augsburg win5%
Level at half-time, Augsburg win4%
Bayern Munich ahead at half-time, Augsburg win1%
Augsburg ahead at half-time, draw4%
Level at half-time, draw8%
Bayern Munich ahead at half-time, draw4%
Augsburg ahead at half-time, Bayern Munich win4%
Level at half-time, Bayern Munich win17%
Bayern Munich ahead at half-time, Bayern Munich win53%

When the goals come

Model estimate

Expected goals in each 15 minutes.

1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
AugsburgBayern Munich

Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works

Every player's chances

Model estimate

Everyone likely to play, by chance to score. Minutes: what we expect him to play; shots: how many he should take.

Augsburg
Augsburg: each player's chances
PlayerMinScore2+AssistGoal or assistShots
Michael Gregoritsch7628%4%7%33%1.6
Fabian Rieder8910%<1%12%21%1.0
Anton Kade369%<1%4%13%0.7
Rodrigo Ribeiro bench197%<1%<1%8%0.5
Robin Fellhauer807%<1%4%10%0.6
Mert Kömür bench335%<1%4%9%0.6
Marius Wolf765%<1%13%18%0.6
Arijon Ibrahimovic bench254%<1%4%8%0.4
Han-Noah Massengo714%<1%4%8%0.4
Calvin Brackelmann704%<1%2%6%0.4
Noahkai Banks774%<1%3%7%0.3
Alexis Claude Maurice bench193%<1%2%5%0.4
Chrislain Matsima853%<1%3%5%0.3
Hennes Behrens722%<1%7%9%0.3
Yannik Keitel bench212%<1%1%3%0.2
Seol Young-Woo bench9<1%<1%1%2%0.1
Cédric Zesiger bench18<1%<1%<1%1%0.1
Finn Dahmen90<1%<1%<1%1%0.0
Jeffrey Gouweleeuw bench20<1%<1%<1%1%0.1
Mads Pedersen bench5<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0
Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich: each player's chances
PlayerMinScore2+AssistGoal or assistShots
Harry Kane7760%24%17%67%3.8
Luis Díaz7134%7%22%48%2.5
Michael Olise6530%5%32%52%2.8
Ismael Saibari bench3618%2%11%27%1.2
Jamal Musiala bench4318%2%12%28%1.5
Lennart Karl bench4016%1%8%22%1.2
Aleksandar Pavlovic6310%<1%8%18%0.7
Joshua Kimmich768%<1%21%27%1.0
Dayotchanculle Upamecano826%<1%5%11%0.5
Konrad Laimer466%<1%10%15%0.4
Tom Bischof bench416%<1%8%13%0.8
Alphonso Davies544%<1%14%18%0.4
Nathaniel Brown bench374%<1%5%9%0.3
Josip Stanisic474%<1%6%10%0.2
Leon Goretzka bench174%<1%2%6%0.3
Jonathan Tah554%<1%2%6%0.3
Kim Min-Jae bench432%<1%2%4%0.2
Manuel Neuer67<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0
Jonas Urbig bench23<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0