Augsburg v Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich, clearly.
TestedBayern Munich win about 74 times in 100. The other 26: a draw (16) or an Augsburg win (10).
Forecast by Vesta, published Wednesday 30 September 2026, 13:24 CEST, before kickoff.
Likely line-ups
Our estimate from recent matches; the confirmed ones replace it about an hour before kickoffPlayers to watch
Model estimateEach player's chance to score and to assist, from Vesta's expected goals for his team, his expected goals and goals per 90 minutes, and the minutes he is likely to play (the likely line-ups above).
Numbers to expect
Forecast by VestaWhat each side should make in this match, forecast by Vesta from both teams' recent numbers and the match forecast.
What's at stake
Model estimateThe chance of each team finishing first, in the top four or in the bottom three: today, and in the simulated seasons where this match ends in each result.
| Team and chance | Now | Augsburg win | Draw | Bayern Munich win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Augsburg | ||||
| Top 4 | 4% | 6% | 4% | 3% |
| Bottom 3 | 6% | 3% | 4% | 7% |
| Bayern Munich | ||||
| Title | 93% | 88% | 90% | 94% |
Goals in the match
TestedExactly
Goals by team
TestedWinning margin
TestedResult combinations
TestedClean sheets
TestedThe first goal
Model estimateWhen it comes
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Augsburg goals down, Bayern Munich goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 4.4 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 3.3 |
| 1 | 1.6 | 6.2 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 3.8 |
| 2 | 0.9 | 2.8 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 2.1 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | · | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Halves
TestedHalf-time and full-time
TestedWhen the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works
Every player's chances
Model estimateEveryone likely to play, by chance to score. Minutes: what we expect him to play; shots: how many he should take.
| Player | Score | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Gregoritsch | 28% | 7% | 1.6 |
| Fabian Rieder | 10% | 12% | 1.0 |
| Anton Kade | 9% | 4% | 0.7 |
| Rodrigo Ribeiro bench | 7% | <1% | 0.5 |
| Robin Fellhauer | 7% | 4% | 0.6 |
| Mert Kömür bench | 5% | 4% | 0.6 |
| Marius Wolf | 5% | 13% | 0.6 |
| Arijon Ibrahimovic bench | 4% | 4% | 0.4 |
| Han-Noah Massengo | 4% | 4% | 0.4 |
| Calvin Brackelmann | 4% | 2% | 0.4 |
| Noahkai Banks | 4% | 3% | 0.3 |
| Alexis Claude Maurice bench | 3% | 2% | 0.4 |
| Chrislain Matsima | 3% | 3% | 0.3 |
| Hennes Behrens | 2% | 7% | 0.3 |
| Yannik Keitel bench | 2% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Seol Young-Woo bench | <1% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Cédric Zesiger bench | <1% | <1% | 0.1 |
| Finn Dahmen | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |
| Jeffrey Gouweleeuw bench | <1% | <1% | 0.1 |
| Mads Pedersen bench | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |
| Player | Score | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | 60% | 17% | 3.8 |
| Luis Díaz | 34% | 22% | 2.5 |
| Michael Olise | 30% | 32% | 2.8 |
| Ismael Saibari bench | 18% | 11% | 1.2 |
| Jamal Musiala bench | 18% | 12% | 1.5 |
| Lennart Karl bench | 16% | 8% | 1.2 |
| Aleksandar Pavlovic | 10% | 8% | 0.7 |
| Joshua Kimmich | 8% | 21% | 1.0 |
| Dayotchanculle Upamecano | 6% | 5% | 0.5 |
| Konrad Laimer | 6% | 10% | 0.4 |
| Tom Bischof bench | 6% | 8% | 0.8 |
| Alphonso Davies | 4% | 14% | 0.4 |
| Nathaniel Brown bench | 4% | 5% | 0.3 |
| Josip Stanisic | 4% | 6% | 0.2 |
| Leon Goretzka bench | 4% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Jonathan Tah | 4% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Kim Min-Jae bench | 2% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Manuel Neuer | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |
| Jonas Urbig bench | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |



