FC Cologne v Borussia M.Gladbach
FC Cologne, just.
TestedFC Cologne win about 46 times in 100. The other 54: a draw (26) or a Borussia M.Gladbach win (28).
Forecast by Vesta, published Wednesday 30 September 2026, 13:24 CEST, before kickoff.
Likely line-ups
Our estimate from recent matches; the confirmed ones replace it about an hour before kickoff- MS Schwäbe
- GM Mensah
- JS Simpson-Pusey
- LL Lochoshvili
- ES Skhiri
- AC Castro-Montes
- TK Krauß
- ÍB Jóhannesson
- MM Moore
- LM Maina
- SE El Mala
- MN Nicolas
- LU Ullrich
- KD Diks
- KI Itakura
- JS Scally
- PS Sander
- WM Mohya
- KS Stöger
- HB Bolin
- FH Honorat
- TK Kleindienst
Players to watch
Model estimateEach player's chance to score and to assist, from Vesta's expected goals for his team, his expected goals and goals per 90 minutes, and the minutes he is likely to play (the likely line-ups above).
Numbers to expect
Forecast by VestaWhat each side should make in this match, forecast by Vesta from both teams' recent numbers and the match forecast.
What's at stake
Model estimateThe chance of each team finishing first, in the top four or in the bottom three: today, and in the simulated seasons where this match ends in each result.
| Team and chance | Now | FC Cologne win | Draw | Borussia M.Gladbach win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne | ||||
| Top 4 | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Bottom 3 | 17% | 12% | 19% | 25% |
| Borussia M.Gladbach | ||||
| Bottom 3 | 62% | 68% | 62% | 49% |
Goals in the match
TestedExactly
Goals by team
TestedWinning margin
TestedResult combinations
TestedClean sheets
TestedThe first goal
Model estimateWhen it comes
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: FC Cologne goals down, Borussia M.Gladbach goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 11.0 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.7 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Halves
TestedHalf-time and full-time
TestedWhen the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works
Every player's chances
Model estimateEveryone likely to play, by chance to score. Minutes: what we expect him to play; shots: how many he should take.
| Player | Score | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Said El Mala | 30% | 11% | 2.2 |
| Ragnar Ache bench | 21% | 7% | 1.3 |
| Thijs Dallinga bench | 18% | 5% | 1.2 |
| Marius Bülter bench | 16% | 10% | 1.3 |
| Linton Maina | 15% | 13% | 1.5 |
| Alessio Castro-Montes | 12% | 19% | 1.0 |
| Mikey Moore | 10% | 8% | 1.2 |
| Jan Thielmann bench | 7% | 3% | 0.7 |
| Luka Lochoshvili | 6% | 4% | 0.8 |
| Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson | 6% | 8% | 0.6 |
| Tom Krauß | 5% | 7% | 0.7 |
| Jakub Kaminski bench | 5% | 3% | 0.4 |
| Ellyes Skhiri | 5% | 5% | 0.5 |
| Paul Okon-Engstler bench | 4% | 3% | 0.4 |
| Jahmai Simpson-Pusey | 3% | 3% | 0.6 |
| Eric Martel bench | 2% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Sebastian Sebulonsen bench | 1% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Cenk Özkacar bench | <1% | <1% | 0.1 |
| Gideon Mensah | <1% | 6% | 0.2 |
| Kristoffer Lund bench | <1% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Joël Schmied bench | <1% | <1% | 0.1 |
| Marvin Schwäbe | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |
| Player | Score | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hugo Bolin | 19% | 10% | 1.9 |
| Tim Kleindienst | 15% | 6% | 1.2 |
| Kevin Diks | 13% | 3% | 0.8 |
| Isac Lidberg bench | 12% | 4% | 0.8 |
| Wael Mohya | 9% | 5% | 0.9 |
| Haris Tabakovic bench | 8% | 1% | 0.4 |
| Ko Itakura | 7% | 4% | 0.7 |
| Philipp Sander | 7% | 5% | 1.0 |
| Joe Scally | 6% | 6% | 0.5 |
| Robin Hack bench | 6% | 6% | 0.7 |
| Kevin Stöger | 6% | 6% | 0.7 |
| Shuto Machino bench | 5% | 1% | 0.3 |
| Franck Honorat | 4% | 18% | 0.6 |
| Mathieu Nguefack bench | 4% | 3% | 0.4 |
| Lukas Ullrich | 3% | 7% | 0.5 |
| Yannick Engelhardt bench | 2% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Florian Neuhaus bench | 2% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Jan Leszczynski bench | 1% | 2% | 0.2 |
| David Herold bench | 1% | 2% | 0.1 |
| Daiki Hashioka bench | 1% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Nico Elvedi bench | <1% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Moritz Nicolas | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |



