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FC Cologne v Borussia M.Gladbach

46%FC Cologne
26%Draw
28%Borussia M.Gladbach

FC Cologne, just.

Tested

FC Cologne win about 46 times in 100. The other 54: a draw (26) or a Borussia M.Gladbach win (28).

Forecast by Vesta, published Wednesday 30 September 2026, 13:24 CEST, before kickoff.

3 or more goals65%
Both teams score67%
Expected goals1.9 v 1.5
Most likely score1-111% chance

Likely line-ups

Our estimate from recent matches; the confirmed ones replace it about an hour before kickoff
FC Cologne3-4-1-24-1-4-1Borussia M.Gladbach

Players to watch

Model estimate

Each player's chance to score and to assist, from Vesta's expected goals for his team, his expected goals and goals per 90 minutes, and the minutes he is likely to play (the likely line-ups above).

Numbers to expect

Forecast by Vesta

What each side should make in this match, forecast by Vesta from both teams' recent numbers and the match forecast.

Shots17.812.4
Shots on target6.14.2
Corners5.64.5
Fouls9.611.5
Yellow cards1.82.2

What's at stake

Model estimate

The chance of each team finishing first, in the top four or in the bottom three: today, and in the simulated seasons where this match ends in each result.

What FC Cologne v Borussia M.Gladbach changes for both teams
Team and chanceNowFC Cologne winDrawBorussia M.Gladbach win
FC Cologne
Top 4<1%1%<1%<1%
Bottom 317%12%19%25%
Borussia M.Gladbach
Bottom 362%68%62%49%

Goals in the match

Tested
1 or more goals96%
2 or more goals86%
3 or more goals65%
4 or more goals45%
5 or more goals25%

Exactly

0 goals4%
1 goal10%
2 goals20%
3 goals21%
4 goals19%
5 goals12%
6 or more goals13%

Goals by team

Tested
FC Cologne: 1 or more86%
FC Cologne: 2 or more57%
FC Cologne: 3 or more30%
Borussia M.Gladbach: 1 or more77%
Borussia M.Gladbach: 2 or more43%
Borussia M.Gladbach: 3 or more18%
Both teams score67%
At least one team does not score33%

Winning margin

Tested
FC Cologne by 3 or more12%
FC Cologne by 214%
FC Cologne by 120%
Draw26%
Borussia M.Gladbach by 115%
Borussia M.Gladbach by 28%
Borussia M.Gladbach by 3 or more5%

Result combinations

Tested
FC Cologne win or draw72%
Either team wins (no draw)74%
Borussia M.Gladbach win or draw54%

Clean sheets

Tested
FC Cologne keep a clean sheet23%
Borussia M.Gladbach keep a clean sheet14%
FC Cologne win without conceding19%
Borussia M.Gladbach win without conceding10%
No goals at all4%

The first goal

Model estimate
FC Cologne score first54%
Borussia M.Gladbach score first42%
No goals4%

When it comes

Minutes 1-1538%
Minutes 16-3023%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6010%
Minutes 61-756%
Minutes 76-90+4%

Every score

Tested

Chance of each score in percent: FC Cologne goals down, Borussia M.Gladbach goals across.

Chance of each exact score
Home goals down, away goals across012345
03.94.53.41.70.60.2
16.011.06.63.21.20.4
25.98.77.83.21.20.3
33.85.74.22.50.80.2
41.92.82.01.00.40.1
50.71.10.80.40.10.1

Halves

Tested
A goal in the first half77%
A goal in the second half85%
FC Cologne ahead at half-time37%
Level at half-time38%
Borussia M.Gladbach ahead at half-time25%
FC Cologne win the second half41%
Second half level32%
Borussia M.Gladbach win the second half27%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half47%
Same goals in both halves23%

Half-time and full-time

Tested
FC Cologne ahead at half-time, FC Cologne win28%
Level at half-time, FC Cologne win15%
Borussia M.Gladbach ahead at half-time, FC Cologne win3%
FC Cologne ahead at half-time, draw6%
Level at half-time, draw14%
Borussia M.Gladbach ahead at half-time, draw6%
FC Cologne ahead at half-time, Borussia M.Gladbach win2%
Level at half-time, Borussia M.Gladbach win9%
Borussia M.Gladbach ahead at half-time, Borussia M.Gladbach win16%

When the goals come

Model estimate

Expected goals in each 15 minutes.

1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
FC CologneBorussia M.Gladbach

Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works

Every player's chances

Model estimate

Everyone likely to play, by chance to score. Minutes: what we expect him to play; shots: how many he should take.

FC Cologne
FC Cologne: each player's chances
PlayerMinScore2+AssistGoal or assistShots
Said El Mala5130%5%11%37%2.2
Ragnar Ache bench3821%2%7%27%1.3
Thijs Dallinga bench3118%2%5%22%1.2
Marius Bülter bench3916%1%10%24%1.3
Linton Maina5815%1%13%26%1.5
Alessio Castro-Montes7812%<1%19%28%1.0
Mikey Moore4210%<1%8%18%1.2
Jan Thielmann bench297%<1%3%9%0.7
Luka Lochoshvili726%<1%4%9%0.8
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson486%<1%8%13%0.6
Tom Krauß715%<1%7%12%0.7
Jakub Kaminski bench185%<1%3%8%0.4
Ellyes Skhiri505%<1%5%10%0.5
Paul Okon-Engstler bench234%<1%3%7%0.4
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey903%<1%3%6%0.6
Eric Martel bench182%<1%2%4%0.2
Sebastian Sebulonsen bench231%<1%2%3%0.3
Cenk Özkacar bench18<1%<1%<1%1%0.1
Gideon Mensah67<1%<1%6%7%0.2
Kristoffer Lund bench18<1%<1%2%2%0.2
Joël Schmied bench10<1%<1%<1%<1%0.1
Marvin Schwäbe90<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0
Borussia M.Gladbach
Borussia M.Gladbach: each player's chances
PlayerMinScore2+AssistGoal or assistShots
Hugo Bolin7719%2%10%27%1.9
Tim Kleindienst4515%1%6%20%1.2
Kevin Diks9013%<1%3%15%0.8
Isac Lidberg bench3012%<1%4%16%0.8
Wael Mohya499%<1%5%14%0.9
Haris Tabakovic bench158%<1%1%9%0.4
Ko Itakura727%<1%4%10%0.7
Philipp Sander897%<1%5%11%1.0
Joe Scally716%<1%6%12%0.5
Robin Hack bench356%<1%6%11%0.7
Kevin Stöger456%<1%6%12%0.7
Shuto Machino bench125%<1%1%6%0.3
Franck Honorat544%<1%18%21%0.6
Mathieu Nguefack bench244%<1%3%7%0.4
Lukas Ullrich663%<1%7%10%0.5
Yannick Engelhardt bench182%<1%1%4%0.2
Florian Neuhaus bench142%<1%2%4%0.3
Jan Leszczynski bench201%<1%2%3%0.2
David Herold bench241%<1%2%3%0.1
Daiki Hashioka bench171%<1%1%2%0.1
Nico Elvedi bench18<1%<1%1%2%0.1
Moritz Nicolas90<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0