Real Madrid v Villarreal

Each player's chance to score and to assist, from Vesta's expected goals for his team, his expected goals and goals per 90 minutes, and the minutes he is likely to play (the likely line-ups above).

Real Madrid

• Kylian Mbappe-LottinForward, started 5 of the last 559%to score
• Vinícius JúniorLeft winger, started 5 of the last 532%to score
• Jude BellinghamAttacking midfielder, started 4 of the last 523%to score
• Yan DiomandeRight winger, started 2 of the last 515%to score

Most likely to assist: Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 21%, Vinícius Júnior 19%

Villarreal

• Georges MikautadzeForward, started 2 of the last 518%to score
• Gerard MorenoForward, started 3 of the last 515%to score
• Ayoze PérezForward, started 3 of the last 515%to score
• Nicolas PepeRight midfielder, started 3 of the last 510%to score

Most likely to assist: Alberto Moleiro 10%, Nicolas Pepe 9%

What each side should make in this match, forecast by Vesta from both teams' recent numbers and the match forecast.

The chance of each team finishing first, in the top four or in the bottom three: today, and in the simulated seasons where this match ends in each result.

Everyone likely to play, by chance to score. Minutes: what we expect him to play; shots: how many he should take.

Real Madrid

Real Madrid: each player's chances

Player	Min	Score	2+	Assist	Goal or assist	Shots
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin	90	59%	23%	21%	68%	5.1
Vinícius Júnior	79	32%	6%	19%	45%	2.7
Jude Bellingham	75	23%	3%	17%	36%	2.0
Yan Diomande	48	15%	1%	16%	28%	1.0
Arda Güler bench	42	10%	<1%	18%	27%	1.0
Denzel Dumfries	50	9%	<1%	4%	13%	0.8
Federico Valverde	79	9%	<1%	15%	22%	1.4
Dean Huijsen	65	6%	<1%	4%	10%	0.7
Antonio Rüdiger bench	43	4%	<1%	1%	5%	0.4
Marc Cucurella	72	4%	<1%	10%	14%	0.5
Eduardo Camavinga	44	4%	<1%	4%	8%	0.4
Ibrahima Konaté	72	4%	<1%	2%	6%	0.4
Aurelien Tchouameni bench	36	4%	<1%	3%	7%	0.6
Brahim Diaz bench	18	2%	<1%	5%	8%	0.2
Bernardo Silva bench	22	2%	<1%	4%	6%	0.2
Trent Alexander-Arnold bench	40	2%	<1%	8%	10%	0.4
Álvaro Fernández bench	18	1%	<1%	2%	3%	0.1
Thibaut Courtois	90	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	0.0

Villarreal

Villarreal: each player's chances

Player	Min	Score	2+	Assist	Goal or assist	Shots
Georges Mikautadze	48	18%	2%	6%	23%	1.0
Gerard Moreno bench	47	15%	1%	6%	20%	0.8
Ayoze Pérez bench	48	15%	1%	7%	21%	0.8
Nicolas Pepe	54	10%	<1%	9%	18%	0.8
Pape Alassane Gueye	71	10%	<1%	5%	14%	0.8
Alberto Moleiro	59	10%	<1%	10%	19%	0.7
Tajon Buchanan	64	8%	<1%	5%	13%	0.7
Nathan Saliba	59	4%	<1%	4%	8%	0.6
Santiago Comesaña bench	43	4%	<1%	4%	8%	0.3
Ilias Akhomach bench	32	3%	<1%	5%	9%	0.4
Carlos Romero bench	40	3%	<1%	2%	5%	0.3
Tani Oluwaseyi bench	8	2%	<1%	1%	3%	0.1
Sergi Cardona	54	2%	<1%	5%	7%	0.3
Alexander Freeman	61	1%	<1%	2%	3%	0.2
Renato Veiga	90	1%	<1%	2%	3%	0.2
Santiago Mouriño bench	31	<1%	<1%	1%	2%	0.1
Logan Costa bench	17	<1%	<1%	<1%	2%	0.1
Pau Navarro	52	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	0.1
Juan Foyth bench	18	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	0.1
Péter Gulácsi	54	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	0.0
Luiz Júnior bench	36	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	0.0