Sweden ahead.
TestedSweden win about 50 times in 100. The other 50: a draw (28) or a Poland win (22).
Forecast by Vesta, published Sunday 27 September 2026, 22:54 CEST on our social channels, before kickoff.
Final score 3–1: Vesta gave this result 50%. The favourite came through.
3 or more goals43%
Both teams score47%
Expected goals1.5 v 0.9
Most likely score1-113% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals90%
2 or more goals69%
3 or more goals43%
4 or more goals22%
5 or more goals9%
Exactly
0 goals10%
1 goal21%
2 goals27%
3 goals21%
4 goals13%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals4%
Goals by team
TestedSweden: 1 or more77%
Sweden: 2 or more43%
Sweden: 3 or more19%
Poland: 1 or more60%
Poland: 2 or more23%
Poland: 3 or more6%
Both teams score47%
At least one team does not score53%
Winning margin
TestedSweden by 3 or more10%
Sweden by 215%
Sweden by 124%
Draw28%
Poland by 115%
Poland by 26%
Poland by 3 or more2%
Result combinations
TestedSweden win or draw78%
Either team wins (no draw)72%
Poland win or draw50%
Clean sheets
TestedSweden keep a clean sheet40%
Poland keep a clean sheet23%
Sweden win without conceding30%
Poland win without conceding13%
No goals at all10%
The first goal
Model estimateSweden score first56%
Poland score first35%
No goals10%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1529%
Minutes 16-3020%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Sweden goals down, Poland goals across. The outlined one happened.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | · |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.2 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | · |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half66%
A goal in the second half73%
Sweden ahead at half-time37%
Level at half-time44%
Poland ahead at half-time19%
Sweden win the second half40%
Second half level40%
Poland win the second half21%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half42%
Same goals in both halves29%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateSweden ahead at half-time, Sweden win30%
Level at half-time, Sweden win17%
Poland ahead at half-time, Sweden win2%
Sweden ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw18%
Poland ahead at half-time, draw5%
Sweden ahead at half-time, Poland win1%
Level at half-time, Poland win9%
Poland ahead at half-time, Poland win12%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
SwedenPoland
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works