- National teams
- UEFA Nations League
Luxembourg v Iceland
28%Luxembourg
30%Draw
42%Iceland
Iceland, just.
TestedIceland win about 42 times in 100. The other 58: a draw (30) or a Luxembourg win (28).
Forecast by Vesta, published Tuesday 29 September 2026, 12:08 CEST on our social channels, before kickoff.
Final score 0–3: Vesta gave this result 42%. The favourite came through.
3 or more goals41%
Both teams score48%
Expected goals1.0 v 1.3
Most likely score1-114% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals90%
2 or more goals68%
3 or more goals41%
4 or more goals21%
5 or more goals9%
Exactly
0 goals10%
1 goal21%
2 goals27%
3 goals20%
4 goals12%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals3%
Goals by team
TestedLuxembourg: 1 or more64%
Luxembourg: 2 or more27%
Luxembourg: 3 or more8%
Iceland: 1 or more73%
Iceland: 2 or more38%
Iceland: 3 or more15%
Both teams score48%
At least one team does not score52%
Winning margin
TestedLuxembourg by 3 or more3%
Luxembourg by 28%
Luxembourg by 117%
Draw30%
Iceland by 123%
Iceland by 213%
Iceland by 3 or more7%
Result combinations
TestedLuxembourg win or draw58%
Either team wins (no draw)70%
Iceland win or draw72%
Clean sheets
TestedLuxembourg keep a clean sheet27%
Iceland keep a clean sheet36%
Luxembourg win without conceding16%
Iceland win without conceding25%
No goals at all10%
The first goal
Model estimateLuxembourg score first39%
Iceland score first51%
No goals10%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1529%
Minutes 16-3020%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-758%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Luxembourg goals down, Iceland goals across. The outlined one happened.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 12.0 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 13.9 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | · | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half65%
A goal in the second half72%
Luxembourg ahead at half-time23%
Level at half-time45%
Iceland ahead at half-time32%
Luxembourg win the second half25%
Second half level40%
Iceland win the second half35%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half41%
Same goals in both halves29%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateLuxembourg ahead at half-time, Luxembourg win16%
Level at half-time, Luxembourg win11%
Iceland ahead at half-time, Luxembourg win1%
Luxembourg ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw19%
Iceland ahead at half-time, draw5%
Luxembourg ahead at half-time, Iceland win2%
Level at half-time, Iceland win15%
Iceland ahead at half-time, Iceland win25%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
LuxembourgIceland
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works