- National teams
- UEFA Nations League
Slovakia v Kazakhstan
71%Slovakia
20%Draw
9%Kazakhstan
Slovakia, clearly.
TestedSlovakia win about 71 times in 100. The other 29: a draw (20) or a Kazakhstan win (9).
Forecast by Vesta, published Tuesday 29 September 2026, 12:08 CEST on our social channels, before kickoff.
Final score 2–1: Vesta gave this result 71%. The favourite came through.
3 or more goals52%
Both teams score42%
Expected goals2.1 v 0.6
Most likely score2-014% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals93%
2 or more goals76%
3 or more goals52%
4 or more goals30%
5 or more goals15%
Exactly
0 goals7%
1 goal17%
2 goals25%
3 goals22%
4 goals15%
5 goals8%
6 or more goals6%
Goals by team
TestedSlovakia: 1 or more88%
Slovakia: 2 or more62%
Slovakia: 3 or more35%
Kazakhstan: 1 or more47%
Kazakhstan: 2 or more13%
Kazakhstan: 3 or more3%
Both teams score42%
At least one team does not score58%
Winning margin
TestedSlovakia by 3 or more25%
Slovakia by 222%
Slovakia by 124%
Draw20%
Kazakhstan by 17%
Kazakhstan by 22%
Kazakhstan by 3 or more0%
Result combinations
TestedSlovakia win or draw91%
Either team wins (no draw)80%
Kazakhstan win or draw29%
Clean sheets
TestedSlovakia keep a clean sheet53%
Kazakhstan keep a clean sheet12%
Slovakia win without conceding46%
Kazakhstan win without conceding5%
No goals at all7%
The first goal
Model estimateSlovakia score first72%
Kazakhstan score first22%
No goals7%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1533%
Minutes 16-3022%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+5%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Slovakia goals down, Kazakhstan goals across. The outlined one happened.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | · | · |
| 1 | 13.0 | 9.2 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | · |
| 2 | 14.1 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | · |
| 3 | 10.0 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | · |
| 4 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | · | · |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half71%
A goal in the second half78%
Slovakia ahead at half-time51%
Level at half-time38%
Kazakhstan ahead at half-time11%
Slovakia win the second half56%
Second half level32%
Kazakhstan win the second half11%
More goals in the first half31%
More goals in the second half43%
Same goals in both halves25%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateSlovakia ahead at half-time, Slovakia win47%
Level at half-time, Slovakia win21%
Kazakhstan ahead at half-time, Slovakia win2%
Slovakia ahead at half-time, draw4%
Level at half-time, draw13%
Kazakhstan ahead at half-time, draw3%
Slovakia ahead at half-time, Kazakhstan win1%
Level at half-time, Kazakhstan win4%
Kazakhstan ahead at half-time, Kazakhstan win5%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
SlovakiaKazakhstan
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works