Hungary ahead.
TestedHungary win about 53 times in 100. The other 47: a draw (27) or a Georgia win (20).
Forecast by Vesta, published Friday 2 October 2026, 17:45 CEST, before kickoff.
Final score 1–0: Vesta gave this result 53%. The favourite came through.
3 or more goals44%
Both teams score46%
Expected goals1.6 v 0.9
Most likely score1-013% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals91%
2 or more goals70%
3 or more goals44%
4 or more goals23%
5 or more goals10%
Exactly
0 goals9%
1 goal20%
2 goals27%
3 goals21%
4 goals13%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals4%
Goals by team
TestedHungary: 1 or more79%
Hungary: 2 or more47%
Hungary: 3 or more21%
Georgia: 1 or more58%
Georgia: 2 or more21%
Georgia: 3 or more6%
Both teams score46%
At least one team does not score54%
Winning margin
TestedHungary by 3 or more12%
Hungary by 217%
Hungary by 125%
Draw27%
Georgia by 113%
Georgia by 25%
Georgia by 3 or more2%
Result combinations
TestedHungary win or draw80%
Either team wins (no draw)73%
Georgia win or draw47%
Clean sheets
TestedHungary keep a clean sheet42%
Georgia keep a clean sheet21%
Hungary win without conceding33%
Georgia win without conceding11%
No goals at all9%
The first goal
Model estimateHungary score first58%
Georgia score first32%
No goals9%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1530%
Minutes 16-3020%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Hungary goals down, Georgia goals across. The outlined one happened.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | · |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.7 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | · |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | · |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half67%
A goal in the second half74%
Hungary ahead at half-time38%
Level at half-time44%
Georgia ahead at half-time18%
Hungary win the second half44%
Second half level38%
Georgia win the second half19%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half42%
Same goals in both halves28%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateHungary ahead at half-time, Hungary win33%
Level at half-time, Hungary win18%
Georgia ahead at half-time, Hungary win2%
Hungary ahead at half-time, draw4%
Level at half-time, draw17%
Georgia ahead at half-time, draw5%
Hungary ahead at half-time, Georgia win1%
Level at half-time, Georgia win8%
Georgia ahead at half-time, Georgia win11%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
HungaryGeorgia
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works