- National teams
- UEFA Nations League
Montenegro v Armenia
65%Montenegro
22%Draw
13%Armenia
Montenegro, clearly.
TestedMontenegro win about 65 times in 100. The other 35: a draw (22) or an Armenia win (13).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 18:44 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals48%
Both teams score44%
Expected goals1.9 v 0.7
Most likely score1-013% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals92%
2 or more goals74%
3 or more goals48%
4 or more goals27%
5 or more goals13%
Exactly
0 goals8%
1 goal18%
2 goals26%
3 goals22%
4 goals14%
5 goals7%
6 or more goals5%
Goals by team
TestedMontenegro: 1 or more85%
Montenegro: 2 or more57%
Montenegro: 3 or more30%
Armenia: 1 or more51%
Armenia: 2 or more16%
Armenia: 3 or more3%
Both teams score44%
At least one team does not score56%
Winning margin
TestedMontenegro by 3 or more20%
Montenegro by 220%
Montenegro by 125%
Draw22%
Armenia by 19%
Armenia by 23%
Armenia by 3 or more1%
Result combinations
TestedMontenegro win or draw88%
Either team wins (no draw)78%
Armenia win or draw35%
Clean sheets
TestedMontenegro keep a clean sheet49%
Armenia keep a clean sheet15%
Montenegro win without conceding41%
Armenia win without conceding7%
No goals at all8%
The first goal
Model estimateMontenegro score first67%
Armenia score first25%
No goals8%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1532%
Minutes 16-3021%
Minutes 31-45+17%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Montenegro goals down, Armenia goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | · |
| 1 | 13.4 | 10.6 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | · |
| 2 | 13.2 | 9.3 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | · |
| 3 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | · |
| 4 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | · | · |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half70%
A goal in the second half76%
Montenegro ahead at half-time48%
Level at half-time39%
Armenia ahead at half-time14%
Montenegro win the second half52%
Second half level35%
Armenia win the second half14%
More goals in the first half31%
More goals in the second half42%
Same goals in both halves27%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateMontenegro ahead at half-time, Montenegro win43%
Level at half-time, Montenegro win20%
Armenia ahead at half-time, Montenegro win3%
Montenegro ahead at half-time, draw4%
Level at half-time, draw14%
Armenia ahead at half-time, draw4%
Montenegro ahead at half-time, Armenia win1%
Level at half-time, Armenia win5%
Armenia ahead at half-time, Armenia win7%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
MontenegroArmenia
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works