Arsenal v Leeds

Each player's chance to score and to assist, from Vesta's expected goals for his team, his expected goals and goals per 90 minutes, and the minutes he is likely to play (the likely line-ups above).

Arsenal

• Kai HavertzForward, started 5 of the last 538%to score
• Bukayo SakaRight winger, started 5 of the last 531%to score
• GabrielCentre-back, started 5 of the last 513%to score
• Martin OdegaardAttacking midfielder, started 5 of the last 512%to score

Most likely to assist: Martin Odegaard 20%, Bukayo Saka 18%

Leeds

• Dominic Calvert-LewinForward, started 5 of the last 524%to score
• Noah OkaforAttacking midfielder, started 4 of the last 510%to score
• Anton StachMidfielder, started 5 of the last 57%to score
• James JustinLeft wing-back, started 5 of the last 55%to score

Most likely to assist: Anton Stach 10%, James Justin 6%

What each side should make in this match, forecast by Vesta from both teams' recent numbers and the match forecast.

The chance of each team finishing first, in the top four or in the bottom three: today, and in the simulated seasons where this match ends in each result.

Everyone likely to play, by chance to score. Minutes: what we expect him to play; shots: how many he should take.

Arsenal

Arsenal: each player's chances

Player	Min	Score	2+	Assist	Goal or assist	Shots
Kai Havertz	88	38%	8%	14%	46%	2.6
Bukayo Saka	84	31%	5%	18%	43%	2.7
Gabriel	90	13%	<1%	7%	19%	0.9
Martin Odegaard	78	12%	<1%	20%	29%	1.4
Riccardo Calafiori	85	11%	<1%	7%	18%	1.4
Declan Rice	84	10%	<1%	15%	23%	1.2
Christos Tzolis	74	9%	<1%	12%	20%	1.1
Bruno Guimarães bench	24	7%	<1%	3%	10%	0.4
Mikel Merino bench	14	5%	<1%	3%	8%	0.3
Myles Lewis-Skelly	56	4%	<1%	3%	8%	0.6
Eberechi Eze bench	16	4%	<1%	2%	6%	0.5
Jurriën Timber bench	21	3%	<1%	2%	5%	0.2
Ben White	63	3%	<1%	8%	10%	0.4
Martín Zubimendi bench	16	2%	<1%	<1%	3%	0.2
Ezri Konsa Ngoyo	56	2%	<1%	1%	3%	0.2
Cristhian Mosquera bench	34	<1%	<1%	1%	2%	0.1
Piero Hincapié bench	5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	0.0
David Raya	90	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	0.0

Leeds

Leeds: each player's chances

Player	Min	Score	2+	Assist	Goal or assist	Shots
Dominic Calvert-Lewin	85	24%	3%	4%	27%	1.2
Noah Okafor	62	10%	<1%	4%	14%	0.6
Anton Stach	90	7%	<1%	10%	17%	1.0
James Justin	90	5%	<1%	6%	10%	0.5
Ao Tanaka	51	4%	<1%	4%	8%	0.4
Brenden Aaronson bench	40	4%	<1%	5%	8%	0.4
Tarik Muharemovic	90	4%	<1%	3%	7%	0.4
Jayden Bogle	75	4%	<1%	4%	8%	0.3
Lukas Nmecha bench	11	4%	<1%	1%	5%	0.2
Harry Wilson bench	28	3%	<1%	4%	7%	0.4
Ethan Ampadu	90	3%	<1%	3%	6%	0.4
Daniel James bench	9	1%	<1%	<1%	2%	0.2
Jaka Bijol bench	33	<1%	<1%	2%	2%	0.1
Joe Rodon bench	25	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	0.1
Gabriel Gudmundsson	51	<1%	<1%	2%	3%	0.2
Nico Elvedi	65	<1%	<1%	3%	3%	0.1
James Trafford	90	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	0.0