Chelsea v Bournemouth

Each player's chance to score and to assist, from Vesta's expected goals for his team, his expected goals and goals per 90 minutes, and the minutes he is likely to play (the likely line-ups above).

Chelsea

• João PedroForward, started 4 of the last 532%to score
• Cole PalmerAttacking midfielder, started 5 of the last 531%to score
• Morgan RogersAttacking midfielder, started 5 of the last 519%to score
• Pedro NetoRight wing-back, started 4 of the last 511%to score

Most likely to assist: Morgan Rogers 17%, Pedro Neto 14%

Bournemouth

• EvanilsonForward, started 5 of the last 526%to score
• Marcus TavernierLeft winger, started 5 of the last 524%to score
• RayanRight winger, started 5 of the last 520%to score
• Justin KluivertAttacking midfielder, started 4 of the last 513%to score

Most likely to assist: Marcus Tavernier 15%, Rayan 14%

What each side should make in this match, forecast by Vesta from both teams' recent numbers and the match forecast.

The chance of each team finishing first, in the top four or in the bottom three: today, and in the simulated seasons where this match ends in each result.

Everyone likely to play, by chance to score. Minutes: what we expect him to play; shots: how many he should take.

Chelsea

Chelsea: each player's chances

Player	Min	Score	2+	Assist	Goal or assist	Shots
João Pedro	72	32%	6%	11%	40%	1.9
Cole Palmer	89	31%	5%	12%	39%	2.5
Morgan Rogers	89	19%	2%	17%	32%	2.1
Pedro Neto	69	11%	<1%	14%	23%	1.0
Romeo Lavia	55	9%	<1%	5%	14%	0.6
Danny Welbeck bench	17	8%	<1%	1%	9%	0.4
Reece James	58	5%	<1%	9%	13%	0.8
Maxence Lacroix	72	5%	<1%	4%	9%	0.5
Malo Gusto	55	4%	<1%	6%	10%	0.3
Josh Acheampong bench	44	3%	<1%	1%	5%	0.2
Valentín Barco bench	22	3%	<1%	4%	7%	0.3
Levi Colwill	69	2%	<1%	2%	5%	0.3
Wesley Fofana	64	2%	<1%	3%	4%	0.3
Jorrel Hato bench	54	2%	<1%	6%	7%	0.2
Pep Chavarría bench	39	1%	<1%	4%	5%	0.2
Jordan Henderson bench	18	1%	<1%	3%	4%	0.1
Emiliano Martinez	72	<1%	<1%	1%	1%	0.0
Robert Sánchez bench	18	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	0.0

Bournemouth

Bournemouth: each player's chances

Player	Min	Score	2+	Assist	Goal or assist	Shots
Evanilson	86	26%	4%	10%	33%	2.2
Marcus Tavernier	87	24%	3%	15%	35%	2.1
Rayan	89	20%	2%	14%	31%	2.0
Justin Kluivert	62	13%	<1%	8%	20%	1.2
Alex Scott	90	11%	<1%	7%	17%	1.4
António Silva	90	10%	<1%	3%	13%	0.7
Tyler Adams	57	5%	<1%	5%	9%	0.4
Adrien Truffert	90	4%	<1%	10%	14%	0.5
Ryan Christie bench	19	4%	<1%	2%	6%	0.5
James Hill	90	3%	<1%	8%	10%	0.5
Daniel Jebbison bench	6	2%	<1%	<1%	3%	0.2
David Brooks bench	7	2%	<1%	2%	4%	0.2
Lewis Cook bench	35	2%	<1%	3%	5%	0.3
Adam Smith	87	1%	<1%	6%	7%	0.2
Djordje Petrovic	90	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	0.0