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Malaga v Espanyol

34%Malaga
30%Draw
36%Espanyol

Too close to call.

Tested

Out of 100: Malaga 34, draw 30, Espanyol 36. No result stands out.

Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 18:40 CEST, before kickoff.

3 or more goals43%
Both teams score52%
Expected goals1.2 v 1.2
Most likely score1-115% chance

Likely line-ups

Our estimate from recent matches; the confirmed ones replace it about an hour before kickoff
Malaga4-4-24-2-3-1Espanyol

Players to watch

Model estimate

Each player's chance to score and to assist, from Vesta's expected goals for his team, his expected goals and goals per 90 minutes, and the minutes he is likely to play (the likely line-ups above).

Numbers to expect

Forecast by Vesta

What each side should make in this match, forecast by Vesta from both teams' recent numbers and the match forecast.

Shots12.912.0
Shots on target4.24.0
Corners5.14.2
Fouls13.114.4
Yellow cards2.32.5

What's at stake

Model estimate

The chance of each team finishing first, in the top four or in the bottom three: today, and in the simulated seasons where this match ends in each result.

What Malaga v Espanyol changes for both teams
Team and chanceNowMalaga winDrawEspanyol win
Malaga
Bottom 369%60%71%77%
Espanyol
Bottom 321%28%23%14%

Goals in the match

Tested
1 or more goals91%
2 or more goals71%
3 or more goals43%
4 or more goals22%
5 or more goals9%

Exactly

0 goals9%
1 goal20%
2 goals28%
3 goals21%
4 goals13%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals3%

Goals by team

Tested
Malaga: 1 or more71%
Malaga: 2 or more33%
Malaga: 3 or more11%
Espanyol: 1 or more72%
Espanyol: 2 or more35%
Espanyol: 3 or more12%
Both teams score52%
At least one team does not score48%

Winning margin

Tested
Malaga by 3 or more4%
Malaga by 210%
Malaga by 120%
Draw31%
Espanyol by 121%
Espanyol by 210%
Espanyol by 3 or more5%

Result combinations

Tested
Malaga win or draw64%
Either team wins (no draw)69%
Espanyol win or draw66%

Clean sheets

Tested
Malaga keep a clean sheet28%
Espanyol keep a clean sheet29%
Malaga win without conceding19%
Espanyol win without conceding20%
No goals at all9%

The first goal

Model estimate
Malaga score first45%
Espanyol score first46%
No goals9%

When it comes

Minutes 1-1529%
Minutes 16-3020%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6012%
Minutes 61-758%
Minutes 76-90+6%

Every score

Tested

Chance of each score in percent: Malaga goals down, Espanyol goals across.

Chance of each exact score
Home goals down, away goals across012345
08.810.26.42.50.70.2
19.815.48.43.30.90.2
26.08.15.51.90.50.1
32.33.01.90.80.2·
40.60.80.50.20.1·
50.10.20.1···

Halves

Tested
A goal in the first half66%
A goal in the second half75%
Malaga ahead at half-time27%
Level at half-time45%
Espanyol ahead at half-time27%
Malaga win the second half29%
Second half level39%
Espanyol win the second half32%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half43%
Same goals in both halves28%

Half-time and full-time

Tested
Malaga ahead at half-time, Malaga win19%
Level at half-time, Malaga win13%
Espanyol ahead at half-time, Malaga win2%
Malaga ahead at half-time, draw6%
Level at half-time, draw19%
Espanyol ahead at half-time, draw6%
Malaga ahead at half-time, Espanyol win2%
Level at half-time, Espanyol win13%
Espanyol ahead at half-time, Espanyol win20%

When the goals come

Model estimate

Expected goals in each 15 minutes.

1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
MalagaEspanyol

Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works

Every player's chances

Model estimate

Everyone likely to play, by chance to score. Minutes: what we expect him to play; shots: how many he should take.

Malaga
Malaga: each player's chances
PlayerMinScore2+AssistGoal or assistShots
Chupe7525%3%6%29%1.9
Carlos Dotor6716%1%6%22%1.2
Juan Cruz bench349%<1%5%14%0.8
David Larrubia909%<1%9%18%1.6
Dani Lorenzo506%<1%5%11%0.5
Pablo Martínez605%<1%14%18%0.8
Joaquín Muñoz bench505%<1%5%10%0.7
Izan Merino504%<1%4%9%0.5
Eneko Jauregi bench104%<1%1%5%0.3
Adrián Niño bench174%<1%2%6%0.3
Rafa Rodríguez bench264%<1%3%6%0.5
Ángel Recio903%<1%3%6%0.6
José Salinas692%<1%3%5%0.3
Rafita762%<1%3%5%0.3
Ramón Enríquez bench162%<1%2%4%0.2
Einar Galilea612%<1%2%4%0.2
Carlos Puga bench371%<1%2%3%0.2
Juan Berrocal bench181%<1%1%2%0.1
Alfonso Herrero90<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0
Espanyol
Espanyol: each player's chances
PlayerMinScore2+AssistGoal or assistShots
Roberto Fernández8733%6%7%37%2.2
Marcos Fernández bench3912%<1%6%17%1.2
Cala5110%<1%3%13%1.1
Javi Hernández8210%<1%17%25%1.5
Edu Expósito777%<1%13%19%1.4
Leandro Cabrera726%<1%1%8%0.8
Tyrhys Dolan526%<1%6%11%0.7
Gabriel Moscardo bench355%<1%3%7%0.5
Bryan Zaragoza bench274%<1%4%7%0.6
Roger Hinojo743%<1%2%5%0.3
Urko Gonzalez622%<1%2%4%0.5
Pere Milla bench72%<1%<1%3%0.2
Rafael Bauza bench132%<1%2%4%0.2
Unai Núñez501%<1%1%2%0.3
Quilindschy Hartman bench261%<1%4%5%0.2
José Ángel López bench181%<1%<1%2%0.1
Vanja Drkusic bench18<1%<1%<1%2%0.1
Clemens Riedel bench40<1%<1%1%2%0.2
Omar El Hilali69<1%<1%4%5%0.1
Marko Dmitrovic90<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0