Gibraltar, just.
TestedGibraltar win about 45 times in 100. The other 55: a draw (29) or an Andorra win (26).
Forecast by Vesta, published Sunday 27 September 2026, 13:36 CEST on our social channels, before kickoff.
Final score 0–0: Vesta gave this result 29%. Not the favourite: a probability says how often, not which one.
3 or more goals42%
Both teams score48%
Expected goals1.4 v 1.0
Most likely score1-114% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals90%
2 or more goals69%
3 or more goals42%
4 or more goals21%
5 or more goals9%
Exactly
0 goals10%
1 goal21%
2 goals27%
3 goals20%
4 goals12%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals3%
Goals by team
TestedGibraltar: 1 or more74%
Gibraltar: 2 or more39%
Gibraltar: 3 or more16%
Andorra: 1 or more63%
Andorra: 2 or more26%
Andorra: 3 or more8%
Both teams score48%
At least one team does not score52%
Winning margin
TestedGibraltar by 3 or more8%
Gibraltar by 213%
Gibraltar by 123%
Draw29%
Andorra by 117%
Andorra by 27%
Andorra by 3 or more3%
Result combinations
TestedGibraltar win or draw74%
Either team wins (no draw)71%
Andorra win or draw55%
Clean sheets
TestedGibraltar keep a clean sheet37%
Andorra keep a clean sheet26%
Gibraltar win without conceding27%
Andorra win without conceding15%
No goals at all10%
The first goal
Model estimateGibraltar score first52%
Andorra score first38%
No goals10%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1529%
Minutes 16-3020%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-758%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Gibraltar goals down, Andorra goals across. The outlined one happened.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.7 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | · |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half65%
A goal in the second half72%
Gibraltar ahead at half-time33%
Level at half-time45%
Andorra ahead at half-time22%
Gibraltar win the second half36%
Second half level41%
Andorra win the second half23%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half42%
Same goals in both halves29%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateGibraltar ahead at half-time, Gibraltar win26%
Level at half-time, Gibraltar win16%
Andorra ahead at half-time, Gibraltar win2%
Gibraltar ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw19%
Andorra ahead at half-time, draw5%
Gibraltar ahead at half-time, Andorra win1%
Level at half-time, Andorra win10%
Andorra ahead at half-time, Andorra win15%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
GibraltarAndorra
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works