- National teams
- UEFA Nations League
Northern Ireland v Hungary
35%Northern Ireland
30%Draw
35%Hungary
Too close to call.
TestedOut of 100: Northern Ireland 35, draw 30, Hungary 35. No result stands out.
Forecast by Vesta, published Sunday 27 September 2026, 22:55 CEST on our social channels, before kickoff.
Final score 0–0: Vesta gave this result 30%. Not the favourite: a probability says how often, not which one.
3 or more goals41%
Both teams score48%
Expected goals1.2 v 1.2
Most likely score1-114% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals89%
2 or more goals68%
3 or more goals41%
4 or more goals21%
5 or more goals9%
Exactly
0 goals11%
1 goal22%
2 goals27%
3 goals20%
4 goals12%
5 goals5%
6 or more goals3%
Goals by team
TestedNorthern Ireland: 1 or more69%
Northern Ireland: 2 or more32%
Northern Ireland: 3 or more11%
Hungary: 1 or more69%
Hungary: 2 or more32%
Hungary: 3 or more11%
Both teams score48%
At least one team does not score52%
Winning margin
TestedNorthern Ireland by 3 or more5%
Northern Ireland by 210%
Northern Ireland by 120%
Draw30%
Hungary by 120%
Hungary by 210%
Hungary by 3 or more5%
Result combinations
TestedNorthern Ireland win or draw65%
Either team wins (no draw)70%
Hungary win or draw65%
Clean sheets
TestedNorthern Ireland keep a clean sheet31%
Hungary keep a clean sheet31%
Northern Ireland win without conceding21%
Hungary win without conceding21%
No goals at all11%
The first goal
Model estimateNorthern Ireland score first44%
Hungary score first45%
No goals11%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1529%
Minutes 16-3020%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Northern Ireland goals down, Hungary goals across. The outlined one happened.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 10.8 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 14.1 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | · |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half65%
A goal in the second half71%
Northern Ireland ahead at half-time27%
Level at half-time45%
Hungary ahead at half-time28%
Northern Ireland win the second half29%
Second half level41%
Hungary win the second half29%
More goals in the first half31%
More goals in the second half40%
Same goals in both halves29%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateNorthern Ireland ahead at half-time, Northern Ireland win20%
Level at half-time, Northern Ireland win13%
Hungary ahead at half-time, Northern Ireland win2%
Northern Ireland ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw20%
Hungary ahead at half-time, draw6%
Northern Ireland ahead at half-time, Hungary win2%
Level at half-time, Hungary win13%
Hungary ahead at half-time, Hungary win21%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
Northern IrelandHungary
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works