- National teams
- UEFA Nations League
Romania v Bosnia and Herzegovina
49%Romania
28%Draw
23%Bosnia and Herzegovina
Romania, just.
TestedRomania win about 49 times in 100. The other 51: a draw (28) or a Bosnia and Herzegovina win (23).
Forecast by Vesta, published Sunday 27 September 2026, 22:55 CEST on our social channels, before kickoff.
Final score 2–4: Vesta gave this result 23%. Not the favourite: a probability says how often, not which one.
3 or more goals43%
Both teams score47%
Expected goals1.5 v 0.9
Most likely score1-113% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals90%
2 or more goals69%
3 or more goals43%
4 or more goals22%
5 or more goals9%
Exactly
0 goals10%
1 goal21%
2 goals27%
3 goals21%
4 goals13%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals4%
Goals by team
TestedRomania: 1 or more77%
Romania: 2 or more43%
Romania: 3 or more18%
Bosnia and Herzegovina: 1 or more60%
Bosnia and Herzegovina: 2 or more23%
Bosnia and Herzegovina: 3 or more7%
Both teams score47%
At least one team does not score53%
Winning margin
TestedRomania by 3 or more10%
Romania by 215%
Romania by 124%
Draw28%
Bosnia and Herzegovina by 115%
Bosnia and Herzegovina by 26%
Bosnia and Herzegovina by 3 or more2%
Result combinations
TestedRomania win or draw77%
Either team wins (no draw)72%
Bosnia and Herzegovina win or draw51%
Clean sheets
TestedRomania keep a clean sheet40%
Bosnia and Herzegovina keep a clean sheet23%
Romania win without conceding30%
Bosnia and Herzegovina win without conceding13%
No goals at all10%
The first goal
Model estimateRomania score first56%
Bosnia and Herzegovina score first35%
No goals10%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1529%
Minutes 16-3021%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Romania goals down, Bosnia and Herzegovina goals across. The outlined one happened.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | · |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.2 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | · |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half66%
A goal in the second half73%
Romania ahead at half-time37%
Level at half-time44%
Bosnia and Herzegovina ahead at half-time20%
Romania win the second half39%
Second half level40%
Bosnia and Herzegovina win the second half21%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half42%
Same goals in both halves29%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateRomania ahead at half-time, Romania win30%
Level at half-time, Romania win17%
Bosnia and Herzegovina ahead at half-time, Romania win2%
Romania ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw18%
Bosnia and Herzegovina ahead at half-time, draw5%
Romania ahead at half-time, Bosnia and Herzegovina win2%
Level at half-time, Bosnia and Herzegovina win9%
Bosnia and Herzegovina ahead at half-time, Bosnia and Herzegovina win13%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
RomaniaBosnia and Herzegovina
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works