Bulgaria ahead.
TestedBulgaria win about 59 times in 100. The other 41: a draw (25) or an Estonia win (16).
Forecast by Vesta, published Tuesday 29 September 2026, 12:08 CEST on our social channels, before kickoff.
Final score 0–0: Vesta gave this result 25%. Not the favourite: a probability says how often, not which one.
3 or more goals46%
Both teams score45%
Expected goals1.7 v 0.8
Most likely score1-013% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals91%
2 or more goals72%
3 or more goals46%
4 or more goals25%
5 or more goals11%
Exactly
0 goals9%
1 goal19%
2 goals26%
3 goals21%
4 goals14%
5 goals7%
6 or more goals4%
Goals by team
TestedBulgaria: 1 or more82%
Bulgaria: 2 or more52%
Bulgaria: 3 or more25%
Estonia: 1 or more54%
Estonia: 2 or more18%
Estonia: 3 or more4%
Both teams score45%
At least one team does not score55%
Winning margin
TestedBulgaria by 3 or more15%
Bulgaria by 218%
Bulgaria by 125%
Draw25%
Estonia by 111%
Estonia by 24%
Estonia by 3 or more1%
Result combinations
TestedBulgaria win or draw84%
Either team wins (no draw)75%
Estonia win or draw41%
Clean sheets
TestedBulgaria keep a clean sheet46%
Estonia keep a clean sheet18%
Bulgaria win without conceding37%
Estonia win without conceding9%
No goals at all9%
The first goal
Model estimateBulgaria score first63%
Estonia score first29%
No goals9%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1530%
Minutes 16-3021%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Bulgaria goals down, Estonia goals across. The outlined one happened.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | · |
| 1 | 13.5 | 11.7 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | · |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | · |
| 3 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | · |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | · | · |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half68%
A goal in the second half74%
Bulgaria ahead at half-time43%
Level at half-time41%
Estonia ahead at half-time15%
Bulgaria win the second half46%
Second half level37%
Estonia win the second half16%
More goals in the first half31%
More goals in the second half42%
Same goals in both halves27%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateBulgaria ahead at half-time, Bulgaria win38%
Level at half-time, Bulgaria win19%
Estonia ahead at half-time, Bulgaria win3%
Bulgaria ahead at half-time, draw4%
Level at half-time, draw16%
Estonia ahead at half-time, draw4%
Bulgaria ahead at half-time, Estonia win1%
Level at half-time, Estonia win6%
Estonia ahead at half-time, Estonia win9%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
BulgariaEstonia
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works