Portugal, just.
TestedPortugal win about 41 times in 100. The other 59: a draw (30) or a Denmark win (29).
Forecast by Vesta, published Thursday 1 October 2026, 17:41 CEST on our social channels, before kickoff.
Final score 2–4: Vesta gave this result 41%. The favourite came through.
3 or more goals41%
Both teams score48%
Expected goals1.0 v 1.3
Most likely score1-114% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals90%
2 or more goals68%
3 or more goals41%
4 or more goals21%
5 or more goals9%
Exactly
0 goals10%
1 goal21%
2 goals27%
3 goals20%
4 goals12%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals3%
Goals by team
TestedDenmark: 1 or more65%
Denmark: 2 or more28%
Denmark: 3 or more9%
Portugal: 1 or more73%
Portugal: 2 or more37%
Portugal: 3 or more14%
Both teams score48%
At least one team does not score52%
Winning margin
TestedDenmark by 3 or more3%
Denmark by 28%
Denmark by 118%
Draw30%
Portugal by 122%
Portugal by 212%
Portugal by 3 or more7%
Result combinations
TestedDenmark win or draw59%
Either team wins (no draw)70%
Portugal win or draw71%
Clean sheets
TestedDenmark keep a clean sheet27%
Portugal keep a clean sheet35%
Denmark win without conceding17%
Portugal win without conceding25%
No goals at all10%
The first goal
Model estimateDenmark score first40%
Portugal score first49%
No goals10%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1527%
Minutes 16-3021%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6012%
Minutes 61-758%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Denmark goals down, Portugal goals across. The outlined one happened.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 11.8 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 14.0 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | · | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half64%
A goal in the second half72%
Denmark ahead at half-time23%
Level at half-time46%
Portugal ahead at half-time30%
Denmark win the second half25%
Second half level41%
Portugal win the second half34%
More goals in the first half29%
More goals in the second half42%
Same goals in both halves29%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateDenmark ahead at half-time, Denmark win16%
Level at half-time, Denmark win11%
Portugal ahead at half-time, Denmark win1%
Denmark ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw20%
Portugal ahead at half-time, draw5%
Denmark ahead at half-time, Portugal win2%
Level at half-time, Portugal win15%
Portugal ahead at half-time, Portugal win24%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
DenmarkPortugal
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works