- National teams
- UEFA Nations League
Republic of Ireland v Austria
33%Republic of Ireland
30%Draw
37%Austria
Too close to call.
TestedOut of 100: Republic of Ireland 33, draw 30, Austria 37. No result stands out.
Forecast by Vesta, published Thursday 1 October 2026, 17:41 CEST on our social channels, before kickoff.
Final score 2–2: Vesta gave this result 30%. Not the favourite: a probability says how often, not which one.
3 or more goals41%
Both teams score48%
Expected goals1.1 v 1.2
Most likely score1-114% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals89%
2 or more goals68%
3 or more goals41%
4 or more goals21%
5 or more goals9%
Exactly
0 goals11%
1 goal21%
2 goals27%
3 goals20%
4 goals12%
5 goals5%
6 or more goals3%
Goals by team
TestedRepublic of Ireland: 1 or more67%
Republic of Ireland: 2 or more30%
Republic of Ireland: 3 or more10%
Austria: 1 or more70%
Austria: 2 or more34%
Austria: 3 or more12%
Both teams score48%
At least one team does not score52%
Winning margin
TestedRepublic of Ireland by 3 or more4%
Republic of Ireland by 29%
Republic of Ireland by 119%
Draw30%
Austria by 121%
Austria by 211%
Austria by 3 or more5%
Result combinations
TestedRepublic of Ireland win or draw63%
Either team wins (no draw)70%
Austria win or draw67%
Clean sheets
TestedRepublic of Ireland keep a clean sheet30%
Austria keep a clean sheet33%
Republic of Ireland win without conceding19%
Austria win without conceding22%
No goals at all11%
The first goal
Model estimateRepublic of Ireland score first43%
Austria score first47%
No goals11%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1529%
Minutes 16-3020%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Republic of Ireland goals down, Austria goals across. The outlined one happened.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.2 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 14.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | · |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half65%
A goal in the second half71%
Republic of Ireland ahead at half-time26%
Level at half-time46%
Austria ahead at half-time29%
Republic of Ireland win the second half27%
Second half level41%
Austria win the second half31%
More goals in the first half31%
More goals in the second half41%
Same goals in both halves29%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateRepublic of Ireland ahead at half-time, Republic of Ireland win19%
Level at half-time, Republic of Ireland win12%
Austria ahead at half-time, Republic of Ireland win2%
Republic of Ireland ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw20%
Austria ahead at half-time, draw5%
Republic of Ireland ahead at half-time, Austria win2%
Level at half-time, Austria win14%
Austria ahead at half-time, Austria win22%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
Republic of IrelandAustria
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works