Belgium, clearly.
TestedBelgium win about 66 times in 100. The other 34: a draw (22) or a Turkey win (12).
Forecast by Vesta, published Friday 2 October 2026, 17:45 CEST, before kickoff.
Final score 3–0: Vesta gave this result 66%. The favourite came through.
3 or more goals49%
Both teams score44%
Expected goals1.9 v 0.7
Most likely score1-013% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals92%
2 or more goals74%
3 or more goals49%
4 or more goals27%
5 or more goals13%
Exactly
0 goals8%
1 goal18%
2 goals25%
3 goals22%
4 goals15%
5 goals8%
6 or more goals5%
Goals by team
TestedBelgium: 1 or more86%
Belgium: 2 or more58%
Belgium: 3 or more31%
Turkey: 1 or more50%
Turkey: 2 or more15%
Turkey: 3 or more3%
Both teams score44%
At least one team does not score56%
Winning margin
TestedBelgium by 3 or more21%
Belgium by 221%
Belgium by 125%
Draw22%
Turkey by 19%
Turkey by 23%
Turkey by 3 or more1%
Result combinations
TestedBelgium win or draw88%
Either team wins (no draw)78%
Turkey win or draw34%
Clean sheets
TestedBelgium keep a clean sheet50%
Turkey keep a clean sheet14%
Belgium win without conceding42%
Turkey win without conceding7%
No goals at all8%
The first goal
Model estimateBelgium score first68%
Turkey score first24%
No goals8%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1532%
Minutes 16-3021%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+5%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Belgium goals down, Turkey goals across. The outlined one happened.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | · |
| 1 | 13.4 | 10.3 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | · |
| 2 | 13.4 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | · |
| 3 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | · |
| 4 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | · | · |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half70%
A goal in the second half76%
Belgium ahead at half-time48%
Level at half-time39%
Turkey ahead at half-time13%
Belgium win the second half52%
Second half level35%
Turkey win the second half13%
More goals in the first half31%
More goals in the second half42%
Same goals in both halves26%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateBelgium ahead at half-time, Belgium win44%
Level at half-time, Belgium win20%
Turkey ahead at half-time, Belgium win3%
Belgium ahead at half-time, draw4%
Level at half-time, draw14%
Turkey ahead at half-time, draw4%
Belgium ahead at half-time, Turkey win1%
Level at half-time, Turkey win5%
Turkey ahead at half-time, Turkey win6%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
BelgiumTurkey
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works